For those of you that read my post on the prospects I was excited to see at the Regional, I am sorry to report that none of the recruits in that post actually attended the event. According to other writers at the event there is a major 7v7 camp going on this weekend, so none of the top recruits I listed in that post were able to attend. This allowed the event attendees to put their focus towards the west coast’s second tier of prospects as well as some talented underclassmen.

Subscribe now

The consensus opinion amongst writers at the event was that none of the 2026 QBs who showed up particularly stood out. The two highest rated QBs - Oscar Rios and Clemson commit Tait Reynolds - had solid performances and were the best passers but did not separate themselves out strongly from the bunch. Many at the event thought 3 stars Brady Palmer and Ryan Hopkins, the latter of which ran a 4.61 40, did as well as Rios and Reynolds, but I did not get a chance to watch them as closely. I will say Reynolds looked the most physically ready to play college football, and Rios will need to put on weight before he sees the field at the next level. No 2026 QBs in attendance were invited to the Elite 11 finals.

An under the radar QB 2026 prospect who stood out was Oak Hills’ Jacob Webster. He is a top 100 baseball prospect who is currently committed to be a two-way play (short stop and pitcher) at UC Santa Barbara. According to his dad he pitches in the low 90s, which matches up with the top velocity of 89 on his Perfect Game page. During the event todays he looked like a fluid athlete with a live arm. One more experienced writer/scout described him as raw but agreed that he looked good and should expect more offers coming in soon. He would like to play both baseball and football in college, but currently only has a confirmed football offer from Jacksonville State.

Share

One of the best part about going to events like this is that you’re able to get an early look at young prospects before they get a full media cycle as elite prospects. There were three Class of 2028 prospects that stood out to me: QB Trey Towns Jr., QB Ayden Edwards, and WR/DB Ace Leutele. Players that young will change so much before they go to college that it doesn’t make much sense to scout them too closely. So at that age you’re looking to see how much more they’d have to grow, how smooth of an athlete they are, and how strong their arm is for QBs.

Towns and Edwards pass all those tests with flying colors. They are both tall (by my eye at least 6’1), their movements are fluid and effortless, and they both have strong arms with quick releases. Towns in particular was commented upon by other participants’ parents and my fellow writers as looking legit. Leutele was extremely impressive and the most fluid non-QB underclassman at the regional. He started at safety as a freshman at Mater Dei and tied for the team lead in interceptions with 3. As a receiver, he displayed soft hands and an ease moving through his routes. He would then flip to defensive back for some 1-on-1 reps where he was as natural flipping his hips and staying on top of his receivers as anyone else at the camp.

Subscribe now

Aside from Leutele who I had keyed as a player of interest before the event, I found it difficult to focus on any particular wide receiver or defensive back. Their on-field drills were limited to either routes on air or 1-on-1s as previously mentioned. I was focusing on the QBs during the routes on air and my attention was split during the 1-on-1s, so I didn’t take in as much as I would have liked. Even so, the two highest rated defensive backs at the regional - USC commit Brandon Lockhart and Madden Riordan - were the class of the event at those positions. I don’t recall either losing a 1-on-1 that I watched.

Not many trench and front 7 players were at the regional. By my count only 42 players who play RB, OL, DL, or LB were invited compared to 60 QBs alone. Of those few players only a couple caught my attention. San Diego State commit OT Malik White showed the requisite size to play at the next level. Shaun Scott worked out as a LB and also was necessarily big and fluid. If you want to have a dark horse prospect - EDGE Sarrel Howard of Inglewood high had some solid reps where he was able to showcase a strong burst off the line of scrimmage.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee. If you want more data please check out my recruiting dashboards shiny app.

Disclaimer: I do not have an exact list of attendees, so this is also me guessing who will be there

5 Star ATH/CB Brandon Arrington (2026)

Arrington is from La Mesa, California which is about a two hour drive from the regional, so he may not make the event. But if he does show up he will have my full attention. The 6’2 180 pounder is touted as one of the best athletes in the class, he’s considering running track in college, and my market model has him as the most highly sought after non-QB in the class. He currently has official visits scheduled to Penn State, Texas A&M, Alabama, USC, Oregon, and Georgia with no reported front runner.

4 Star QB Brady Smigiel (2026)

For the sake of brevity I’m only placing one QB on this list, but I will try my best to have extensive notes on all of the biggest 2026 SoCal QBs at the event. So you have names to know, those other QBs are 4 stars Jaden O’Neal, Troy Huhn, Luke Fahey, and Oscar Rios. The former Florida State commit is my pick because according to my model he is one of the three most sought after QBs in this class alongside 5 stars Jared Curtis and Dia Bell. Experts have recently predicted for him to commit to Washington.

Share

5 Star WR Chris Henry Jr. (2026)

Henry is the latest in a long line of elite Ohio State wide receiver commits. The scouts rave about his nearly 6’6 frame, massive catch radius, route running ability, and surprising agility for his frame. He comes from a very athletic family: his father played for the Bengals, his sister Seini Hicks started as a freshman for Ohio State’s women’s basketball team, and his younger brother DeMarcus is a 4 star basketball recruit in the class of 2027. He is also reportedly close with current Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins. I’m interested in him because my model does not meaningfully differentiate him between any of the other top receivers in the class. I’ll be paying close attention to his 40 time, he was timed at a 4.65 after his sophomore season so I want to know if its improved despite his knee injury last season.

Subscribe now

4 Star DL Tomuhini (Tom Tom) Topui (2026)

California has a reputation of not producing much beef. This year is no exception to that stereotype, my market model only has 8 defensive linemen qualifying for a market rating. Topui and 4 star James Carrington are the only high-level prospects at the position in the state. I am excited for Topui in particular because I have heard from fellow recruiting reporters that he has looked excellent in similar showcases. He is currently committed to Oregon.

Share

NR OL Elisha Mueller (2028)

This is a stretch since I am not even sure if high school freshmen are eligible to be invited to an event like this. But Mueller is the only freshman offensive linemen in the state with any power 4 offers. He’s listed at 6’4 280, so if he were to show up I would be interested to see if he is actually as big as advertised and if he’s athletic enough to justify the early USC and Oregon offers.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee. If you want more data please check out my recruiting dashboards shiny app.

Subscribe now

Share

For the purposes of comparison we will assume that the last three full classes under Mack Brown represent a typical North Carolina recruiting strategy. The plurality of the talent they chase after coming from Georgia - Atlanta in particular - followed closely by the home state, Virginia, and Florida. Under Brown these were the sources of the high school pipeline: 70% of their offers to competitive recruits went to players in one of these four states. Also of note is that they only extended an offer to dubiously west coast player.

To compare the Belichick administration’s recruiting to Brown, we’ll look at classes which have most likely only been recruited by the new staff. We’ll do this by looking only at the 2027-29 classes, so recruits who are between high school sophomores and 8th graders. They are extremely young, and an offer at this point really just means they’re big and/or athletic for their age. But it gives us an indication of exactly where they’re trying to seek out talent. From this vantage point we can note three major departures:

1. They have not spent much time focusing on Atlanta whatsoever. Across these three classes UNC has three offers to Atlanta recruit, but only one (extremely large ‘27 IOL Bryson Hurt) was actually offered since Belichick became head coach. This is curious. They’ve clearly spent a lot of time in-state presumably trying to build connections with local high schools. Only good things can come from having a good relationship with your in-state high school coaches, and North Carolina has a bunch of talent anyways so sure why not. But it seems like they’ve spent very little time scouting out talent in the city which produces the most talent in America. They will not continue doing this, obviously, but I will be interested to see exactly when they hit the ground running there.

2. It’s impossible to exactly prove, but the data seems to suggest that Bill’s son and defensive coordinator Steve, formerly the DC at Washington, is playing a significant role in North Carolina’s scouting process. The Tar Heels have offered 7 players out west. One is Legarrette Blount’s son who doesn’t seem to have played varsity snaps yet. Another is Eric McFarland, an IMG wide receiver from Las Vegas. Neither of these are particularly surprising for this staff or indicate much of anything. But the remaining five have Steve’s fingerprints all over them. One of them (Los Angeles ATH Skylar Robinson) was offered after his older brother Jordan transferred to North Carolina to follow Steve. The remaining four are all defensive backs, Steve’s primary position, who were either already offered by Washington by the time Steve came over or were presumably scouted by him. I believe this would suggest that Steve is taking a particularly prominent role in the program’s scouting process.

3. In a move that should surprise absolutely no one, a Bill Belichick team seems to be intentionally scouting out talent in the Northeast. Excluding an IMG recruit originally from western Pennsylvania (CB Larry Moon), the Tar Heels have offered 6 players from the area encompassing New England as well as Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey. Over the last three complete Mack Brown classes UNC only offered 3 competitive recruits from the region. Considering everything we know about Bill Belichick this isn’t surprising, but it is somewhat amusing that in the classes that have been all his he’s offered as many kids from Philadelphia and New York as Miami, all of which are barely less than Atlanta.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee. If you want more data please check out my recruiting dashboards shiny app.

Subscribe now

Are Williams and McWhorter’s industry ratings fair? In my opinion yes. I am not a scout but even after only watching their highlights it’s obvious that Williams is the better prospect. Williams is a tremendous athlete who seems like he cannot be tackled on Friday nights at points and has a strong arm that can fire it into tight windows. McWhorter is a good enough athlete to be a threat in the option game and has a good arm with multiple 50+ yard bombs on tape, but is not elite in either respect.

McWhorter also broke his fibula and dislocated his ankle 4.5 games into the season last year and his final 7 schools include Syracuse, Mississippi State, and Indiana. Williams is good enough to have On3’s USC reporter Scott Schrader singing his praises and comparing him to former Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Even if we don’t consider my brief highlight tape perusal at all, it’s safe to say that Williams is the better prospect and their ratings of 3 and 4 stars respectively is probably fair.

This reveals an obvious flaw in the Market Rating model. The model does not know Williams is the better athlete and that McWhorter just broke his leg. The model can give us good information when comparing players around the edges, but misses significant context. It should play second fiddle to the scout ratings, but can give additional information when combined with those scout ratings.

In the way that On3 and other recruiting services have measured it, McWhorter has been recruited like a 4 star recruit. This is what the model is reporting back. But this narrative starts to come apart a tad when we look into McWhorter’s exact timeline. McWhorter has been starting at Cass along with his OL cousin Bear since his freshman season and his early success led to him being considered one of the top recruits in Georgia. That summer following his freshman season he began taking unofficial visits to various Power 4 programs before receiving offers en masse following his sophomore season. These offers included high level programs such as Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon.

This interest hit a brick wall last June entering his Junior season. He has only taken two unofficial visits since then to programs which did not make his final seven schools. The Power 4 programs which have offered him since are decidedly mid-level (Colorado and Syracuse). Taken all in its totality, we see that early on in his high school career he was able to pique the interest of major programs but they were not interested in seriously recruiting him. For similar reasons, the recruiting services reviewed the available tape and concluded that his talent was commiserate with a 3 star, not like the 4 star he was being pursued like at one time.

Being able to easily detect these types of recruits is a terrific benefit of the model. The model knows how players have been pursued over their high school careers, so we can see which recruits may not have lived up to expectations. We also know from previous analysis that there is some evidence that these players who are overrated by the market - perhaps because of not living up to previous expectations - tend to transfer down more often.

Even if we cannot solely use the Market Rating model to identify the most talented players in a class, we are able to take advantage of the additional information it lends to identify players which may be flawed in a fraction of the time.

Subscribe now

Share

The vast majority of Penn State’s draft picks recruited by James Franklin have come from the Acela corridor - the larger region between Boston and Washington DC. Over 70% of Penn State’s draft picks since 2018, not including Carter and Warren, have come from one of Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, or Virginia. While they have had multiple players outside of the northeast get drafted, the overwhelming core of their most talented players come from the Acela corridor. It becomes even more evident when we look at Penn State’s top 100 picks.

Subscribe now

A supermajority of Penn State’s best prospects have come from the Acela corridor with 80% of their top 100 picks coming from one of the aforementioned states. Even excluding Pittsburgh native Jaquan Brisker, 15 of the Nittany Lions’ top 100 picks come from metros within the range from Boston to Washington DC. Penn State’s roster under James Franklin has undeniably been built through the biggest cities on the east coast - which is not an obvious decision from the outside.

There are historical ties between the program and Rust Belt cities across the midwest and western PA such as Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Detroit. Alternatively, Franklin also could have overindexed on his SEC experience and attempted to eschew PSU’s natural footprint for a southern focus in Atlanta and Miami. Credit where credit is due, Franklin has successfully extracted as much talent as possible out of PSU’s natural footprint even if the national results have not followed.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Consider three QB recruits. QB A is 6’3 & 190lbs, has 36 Power 4 offers, and has only visited top tier SEC schools the summer before his senior year. QB B is 5’11 3/4” & 193 lbs, has 21 P4 offers, and only visited one low level Power 4 school the summer before his senior year. QB C is 6’1 & 165 lbs, has 5 P4 offers, and visited one Power 4 school early in the fall of his sophomore season. If you were to rank the QBs, you would probably rank them A, B, then C. Despite not knowing anything about how strong their arms are, how accurate they are, or how athletic they are, you were able to rank Dia Bell, Sawyer Anderson, and Michael Johnson the same order as the recruiting services.

Since better programs tend to recruit better prospects, it is possible to predict how highly rated a recruit will be given who is recruiting them. This process can be more rigorous and repeatable by creating a model with these same size, offer, and visit inputs. By taking this approach, we are able to predict star ratings within roughly 0.45 stars for every position, and we find evidence which suggests that highly recruited but lowly ranked players may be more likely to transfer down as freshmen.

Share

The model is a series of multinomial logistic regressions, split by position, which takes in each recruit’s size, offers, and visits and predicts their chance of being a 3 Star, 4 Star, or 5 Star recruit.They all consider a recruit’s height, weight, BMI, number of offers, and the program which had the highest team rating in the last cycle. There’s slight positional variation in which features they use to quantify visits, but they all use at least one of the following features: number of official visits the recruit has been on, the range in quality of the official visits (as measured by each program’s rating in the last cycle), and/or an average visit quality weighted by time until national signing day.

Subscribe now

With the probability of each potential star rating we construct an expected star rating. This star rating is then rounded into quarter star buckets. Quarter star buckets are the smallest granularity the model can meaningfully capture. Before rounding though we ought to perform a simple sanity check. Star ratings are mostly direct functions of lower level 1-100 ratings, so our star ratings ought to correlate very well with industry ratings.

Share

The R-2 of 0.53 in the observed data is tremendous as far as sports analytics tends to go. It’s entirely expected given we are modeling essentially a function of the industry rating, but it’s evidence that we are doing a reasonable job of modeling the problem. There are some temperature scaling problems where very few players are predicted to be a 4.5 star or higher. Partially this is a classic class imbalance issue since there are relatively few 5 stars, and also the difference between a 4 star and 5 star is largely information the model is not privy to. But the major factor is that the status of 5 star is only assigned to the top 32 players in a given class. In other words, a 4 star RB in 2023 can be as talented as a 5 star RB in 2022, but 2023 happened to have more phenomenal DL so the player is left as a 4 star. Since the model cannot easily figure that out, it mostly does not assign high 5 star probabilities.

We have evidence that we are not completely missing our target variable. Terrific. But we want to know that the model is also meaningfully capturing distinctions between recruits. To prove that the model is meaningfully capturing distinctions between recruits, we can look at transfer down (Power 4 → Non-Power 4) rates between those who are overrated by the market and those who are underrated by the market.

The rapid changes to the recruiting landscape with NIL deals, the transfer portal, and the soon-to-be-implemented House settlement were taken into account with the first 3 post-NIL classes (2021-23) were used as training data. Although this limits the testing set to one class which has played college football, 2024, we are still able to observe how often players couldn’t cut it and transferred down after their freshman season. To control for some externalities - namely that higher rated players transfer down at lower rates than lower rated players - we will keep our focus on players who were rated by the industry as 3 stars coming out of high school. Given the small sample it will be impossible to draw strong conclusions, but we can hopefully see some directional results.

Share

3 star recruits which have a higher market rating than industry rating broadly transferred down at higher rates than their lower/properly rated counterparts. In other words, a freshman 3 star running back who was recruited similarly to a 4 star RB was slightly more likely to transfer down than a freshman 3 star RB who was recruited like a typical 3 star. Why is this the case? My personal theory is that the players in the overrated group are more likely to have some flaw, such as being too slow, which prevented them from getting a higher scouting grade in the first place. That flaw which reduced their scouting grade then makes them easy targets to transfer down. The underrated/properly rated group may be equally skilled, but without a glaring flaw they can stick around longer.

Given the sample sizes involved this evidence is at best directional, but it helps give us some indication that the model is picking up something interesting beyond what the scouting alone provides. This makes it an interesting and potentially valuable data point to keep in mind as we continue to analyze recruiting.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

For the analytics readers who are unfamiliar, we’ll take a moment to go over the outlines of the Division 1 recruiting calendar. Prior to the summer before a high school athlete’s junior year, coaches can only scout and recruit informally at in-person events such as 7-on-7 tournaments, recruiting showcases/camps, and their varsity games. Coaches may verbally offer athletes scholarships and athletes may verbally commit at this time, but these are not official acts in the eyes of the NCAA. Official recruiting begins the June following an athlete’s sophomore year, which is when coaches are allowed to electronically contact players but not call them. The athletes are then allowed to make official visits where the program pays for their travel to campus beginning in April of their junior year.

Therefore, recruiting begins in earnest the summer before an athlete’s junior year and kicks up a notch when college coaches can roll out the red carpet on official visits beginning in the spring of their junior year. We’ll take our first serious look at the Class of 2026 now, when they’ve officially been talking to college coaches for more than half a year but before they’re able to take official visits. So where does every program stand right now?

Share

On the whole, these rankings are not particularly meaningful. Only 16 programs have 5 or more players committed at time of writing, and when most teams have so few all rankings devolve into “who has the most committed right now.” We expect these to change considerably and only get solidified as we enter the spring after recruits begin to take their official visits. That being said, we can acknowledge that 5 teams (Oregon, Texas A&M, USC, Penn State, and Tennessee) are off to hot starts with 8 or more commitments this early. This doesn’t seem to have much predictive power, but there may be something to glean from seeing where the top recruits are coming from this cycle.

Since Class of 2026 athletes still have to go through the spring and summer circuits of evaluations, we expect Power 4-caliber recruits to get more offers and thus bring up the amount of top recruits within most metros. From this vantage point we cannot say if some of the more important metros (Miami, DC, Houston) are truly having down years or not. On the other hand, we can absolutely say that the Charlotte and Cleveland areas are having particularly years.

Charlotte currently has 13 recruits which are either blue chip prospects or have 10+ Power 4 offers, which is nearly double their total over the 2025 class (8). This could potentially benefit Bill Belichick’s North Carolina, Georgia, or maybe even South Carolina. Cleveland is having its best year in recent memory with 10 top recruits, the most its had over the past 5 cycles. This will look to be a major battle ground between Michigan and Ohio State with both schools offering 5 of the 10 top recruits (4 Star CB Elbert Hill, 4 Star ATH Jakob Weatherspoon, 4 Star IOL Max Riley, 4 Star OT Sam Greer, and 3 Star IOL Will Conroy).

Now that we know high level which areas are trending up and which teams are off to strong starts, let’s look into who the players teams will be battling over are.

Attentive readers will note that there are only 15 5 stars in the table when recruiting services usually try to have around 32 5 stars per season. That is because On3 and 247Sports do not release their full slate of 5 stars until later in the year, so for now we have only what On3’s scouting staff has deemed the 15 best recruits in the nation. On3 will have 20 graded 5 stars after NSD in February, 25 in April, and then the full 32 in July. 247Sports will have an update in early spring and then release their full 32 5 stars in May.

With the 5 stars we’ve identified so far we can see some interesting trends. Most notably, there are 0 5 stars from Texas. This almost certainly will not stay the case - DFW OT John Turntine is the 16th-ranked player according to On3 and #18 player Houston QB Keisean Henderson has been shooting up the rankings - but it is interesting that no Lone Star player has clearly established himself as an elite player nationally this early on. We can also make small inferences about positional quality in this year’s class. There are no RBs, interior DL, and only one DB within the top 15 which potentially indicates a down season for those groups.

Let’s take a moment to dive deeper into each position.

Share

As is typical, most of the blue chip QBs which were identified early are already committed to a Power 4 program. There are still some top options uncommitted on the board, notably #1 QB Jared Curtis and #3 QB Ryder Lyons, and some lower rated options which are highly sought after such as former West Virginia commit Brodie McWhorter and DJ Bordeaux.

Some storylines to follow:

• Why did Tennessee choose Faizon Brandon over Jared Curtis? Or was it the other way around?

• Will LSU pursue a QB this cycle after losing out on Bryce Underwood in 2025?

• Why are there no high caliber QBs from the DFW metroplex? There has been at least 1 in every class since 2021. Bowe Bently is currently closest as a 3 star with 7 P4 offers, but only one comes from an in-state program (Texas Tech).

As opposed to the top quarterbacks, very few of the best running backs in the nation are committed to a program at this point in time. A point which I find interesting is that even though RBs are notorious for being easy evaluations, there doesn’t seem to be a particularly strong correlation between industry rating and offer counts.

Some storylines to watch:

• Will Michigan win the NIL bidding war for #1 RB Savion Hiter?

• With RBs being particularly easy to acquire in the transfer portal, is there any chance HS RBs could end up with fewer opportunities?

Moreso than other positions, southern recruits dominate the best receivers list. Only one receiver from the top 30 - CJ Sadler - comes from north of the Mason-Dixon line.

Some storylines to watch:

• Of the 74 top recruit WRs in the 2026 class, 17 are exactly 6-foot while only 7 are 5’11. While it’s possible this just a fun statistical oddity, I will be watching the official measurements come in from the camps.

• There are 3 top WRs from Mississippi. Will Ole Miss and Mississippi State do a better job of keeping top offensive talent in-state?

Share

There have not been many strong TEs identified at this point in the cycle either by the recruiting services or P4 programs. I do not have data to back this up, but I would imagine this is fairly typical as its unlikely that high school teams would put one of their best athletes at TE.

Some storylines to watch:

• There is a 70 pound range in weight within the top TEs. How many of these recruits will put on weight with successive updates, and will the lighter players stay at TE in college?

• Will more southern and western TEs emerge?

• Gavin Mueller is currently listed as a 3 star by 247Sports but unranked by On3 despite considerable P4 interest. How far will he rise?

Despite being probably the 2nd-most prioritized position after QB, only 2 top recruits at OL are currently committed to a Power 4 program. There is a significant amount of talent at the top of the class all throughout the country this cycle, aside from the west coast.

Some storylines to watch:

• How fast will the top OL recruits come off the board? This past cycle we’ve seen top OL such as Ty Haywood play out their recruitment well past the Early Signing Period.

• Where will each of the top 4 OL end up, and who exactly will be most competitive in those races?

Despite having largely similar body types and skill sets, more top defensive line recruits are committed to Power 4 programs at this point than their offensive counterparts. I also find it interesting that the top defensive line prospects as a whole, whether they are on the edge or interior, are nearly as southern as a group as the wide receivers are.

Some storylines to watch:

• Will the #1 EDGE rusher and #3 player overall really stay committed to the Maryland Terrapins?

• With the top TE commitment, a top OL commitment, and two top DL commitments already, Oregon has made it a clear priority to add beef this cycle. Will they be able to maintain this endeavor?

• A significant amount of top EDGEs are currently listed at or below 220 pounds. Will they put on weight over the course of the summer?

Subscribe now

Outside of QBs, top LBs have the most Power 4 commitments of any position at this point in the cycle. My hypothesis is that this is because so many athletes who would be an LB in high school in the past are now playing EDGE, so a high-caliber athlete who is already a good linebacker at that level is rarer now. Thus, colleges may prioritize the position relatively more early compared to other defensive positions.

Some storylines to watch:

• These athletes are light! Only 5 of the top 30 are listed at 220 or above at this point in the cycle. Will that go up as time goes on?

• Will USC with Lincoln Riley on the hotseat manage to hold onto Atlanta LB Xavier Griffin?

The west coast is positively full of defensive backs this year, and USC has already secured commitments from two within the top 10. It appears to be a particularly strong year for safeties overall, with 5 of the top 7 defensive backs all carrying the torch at that position.

Some storylines to watch:

• LSU has only gotten commitments from the top Louisiana prospect in 1 of the last 4 cycles. Will they be able to turn their luck around with Blaine Bradford?

• After struggling in-state last cycle, Alabama has a commitment from 4 Star CB Zyan Gibson. Can Kalen DeBoer turn around his luck this cycle?

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Share

Of course it is. Why would this post exist if we couldn’t? That doesn’t make any sense, you buffoon.

Using data available in the nflreadr dataset, we find that 2024 Rams under McVay are the only NFL team to have a streak of 13 different playoff opponents in the row since at least 2002. They’re just one of three teams to have a streak of at least 12 different playoff opponents, with the others being the 2010 Steelers and the 2018 Patriots. One could hypothetically estimate theoretically how likely that is by assuming some normal distribution of team quality and running it through many, many seasons of a MCMC simulation. But we can leave that bigger scope project to somebody else. For this silly little question, I am satisfied with the empirical answer that a given team has a 0.5% chance (1 in 200 odds) of facing a streak of 13 different teams in any given 13 playoff game stretch.

Unfortunately, if McVay’s Rams upset the Eagles on Sunday his streak is likely to come to an end. The Lions are heavily favored to beat the Commanders (-520 ML or roughly 80% according to Vegas), and they faced the Rams in last year’s Wild Card round. McVay’s galaxy brain bet to maximally extend his streak would be to lose this weekend then shoot for the #1 seed in 2025 to play a newly ascendant or surprise #5-7 seed with a whacky NFC bracket that includes the Commanders, Giants, Panthers, and Bears. The bet he’s almost certain to take is to try and befuddle Jalen Hurts and pray for a Commanders upset, thus guaranteeing the potential to extend the streak to an unprecedented 15 with a Super Bowl appearance.

I don’t have a strong rooting interest in these playoffs, so I guess I’ll root for the Rams to extend their very silly nonsense record. Who’s house? Ram’s house.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

The main geographic difference between the two program’s rosters is how spread out their rosters are. Notre Dame is truly a national team. They have multiple scholarship players from 20 different states without a single state having double digits. The Fighting Irish have more scholarship players from St. Louis (4) than they do Atlanta (3). The Buckeyes are very much not. Only 21 states are represented among Ohio State’s scholarship players, and 3 states (Ohio, Georgia, and New Jersey) compromise over 50% of their scholarship players (46/90).

Notre Dame’s roster strategy was to get as many talented players from anywhere in everywhere in America, while Ohio State’s was to get the best players it could from its home state as well as several other populous and talented states. But how did these players arrive on their rosters, and how talented do the recruiting outlets think they are?

Share

Ohio State’s roster has taken advantage of the transfer portal slightly more than Notre Dame. They have 12 scholarship transfer players, 6 of which were significant contributors at some point this season (Davison Igbinosun, Quinshon Judkins, Caleb Downs, Will Howard, Seth McLaughlin, and Josh Simmons). The Fighting Irish have 9 scholarship transfer players, with 5 of them being significant contributors in 2024 (Jordan Clark, Rod Heard, Beaux Collins, Riley Leonard, and Mitch Jeter). It’s worthwhile to note that both programs’ starting QBs this season were offseason portal additions.

The differences in their transfer portal additions are significant, but small. Both of these rosters are overwhelmingly functions of high school recruiting with each having at least 85% of their roster composed of prep players they recruited. The more significant difference is the amount of talent on their rosters. Ohio State’s 77.8% blue chip ratio dwarfs Notre Dame’s 62.0%, but where exactly does this talent difference manifest?

Subscribe now

Ohio State possess alarmingly more talent than Notre Dame on the defensive side of the ball. No Notre Dame defensive position group is made up of more than 60% blue chip. The least talented Ohio State defensive group (linebackers) is made up of 81.8% blue chips. This is not necessarily obvious when comparing on field results - no one would claim Ohio State’s linebackers are world beaters - but indicates a general athleticism advantage the Buckeyes have on defense. For example, the average Ohio State scholarship defensive lineman is nearly 15 pounds heavier on average than their Notre Dame counterparts (270 vs 257).

The offensive side of the ball is also slightly less balanced than it appears on paper. The offensive lines are roughly evenly matched, especially after accounting for OSU’s injuries, but Notre Dame’s skill position talent is inefficiently distributed. They possess 8 blue chip wide receivers, however only two of those (Jaden Greathouse and Beaux Collins) are significant threats to contribute this season. They have an incredible group of RBs and TEs with a combined 11 blue chips, but it is vanishingly unlikely that they’ll have more than 3 on the field together at any given time. This significantly limits their ability to generate any semblance of a passing attack against the talented Buckeyes secondary.

If Notre Dame can successfully run the ball against its entire schedule including Georgia and Penn State, then the Fighting Irish should have no concerns on their ability to pound the rock against the Buckeyes. However, with their considerable lack of receiver and secondary talent against Ohio State’s exceptionally talented counterparts, it seems unlikely that the Irish will be able to keep up when the ball is in the air. It could end up being a long night for the Irish if Ohio State can build an early lead on some passing explosives.

A more in depth break down for each passer can be found below.

Share

1. 5 Star Bryce Underwood (Michigan, 99.36)

Prediction: 2025 Starter

Michigan will have two other scholarship QBs on roster to start the 2025 season: transfer senior Mikey Keene, and redshirt freshman Jadyn Davis. Keene has thrown for 8,245 yards and 65 touchdowns while playing under new OC Chip Lindsey as a sophomore in 2022. Davis did not throw a pass or carry the ball while during his sole appearance last season.

Keene will likely be the Week 1 starter given all of his experience and familiarity with Lindsey. But Michigan in recent years has had special rushing packages with a backup QB (JJ McCarthy in 2021, Alex Orji in 2023). It would be reasonable to expect this trend to continue with Underwood since he has a $12 million NIL deal. We can also expect him to become the primary backup, so its plausible he could either beat out Keene by the end of the year or come in if Keene were to miss time. In the worst case scenario, where Underwood never becomes a viable starting Power 4 QB, he will still probably start at least a handful of games in 2026.

2. 5 Star Keelon Russell (Alabama, 98.73)

Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer

Russell is extremely unlikely to become Alabama’s starting QB in 2025. The Crimson Tide are posed to have a ferocious battle between rising redshirt junior and longtime backup Ty Simpson and rising redshirt sophomore Austin Mack who followed Kalen DeBoer from Washington. In either case, the loser is likely to transfer at season’s end and thus leave Russell as the program’s heir apparent.

When exactly Russell would rise from heir apparent to actual starter remains unclear. His quickest path would be for the 2025 starter to either break out and declare for the draft or just be really bad at football. That would open up the path for him to easily slot in as the starter in 2026. The most likely outcome is that the winner is not good enough to declare for the NFL after just one season and ends up staying for 2026, thus pushing Russell’s debut back to 2027.

The worst case scenario for Russell is that Mack wins the job in 2025 and plays out the rest of his eligibility, meaning Russell would have to sit until 2028. I am unsure the chances that a prospect as talented as Russell would be willing to wait 3 seasons before seeing the field, and would probably forecast him to transfer in that case.

3. 5 Star Tavien St. Clair (Ohio State, 98.92)

Prediction: 2027 Starter

Similar to Russell, St. Clair will almost certainly not be starting for the Buckeyes in 2025. The Buckeyes will have a competition between rising juniors Julian Sayin, a former Alabama transfer, and Lincoln Kienholz, who is from South Dakota, and we can assume the loser will transfer at the end of the season. Insiders believe Sayin has the inside track for the job, but the winner doesn’t matter very much to St. Clair. He will only see the field in 2025 because of major injuries, or in clean up duty at the end of blowouts.

St. Clair’s path to starting once the winner is decided is pretty straightforward. The winner could establish themselves as an elite NFL draft prospect and declare after one season starting, letting St. Clair start in 2026. Otherwise, they’ll play out their final season and he’ll be the favorite to start in 2027.

4. 5 Star Husan Longstreet (USC, 97.05)

Prediction: 2025 Starter

Lincoln Riley previously told the LA Times that he planned to bring in another passer via the portal after losing former starter Miller Moss and third stringer Jake Jensen. At time of writing, that leaves Longstreet and current starter rising redshirt junior Jayden Maiava as the only scholarship QBs on the roster. Maiava has shown some flashes, but been inconsistent since taking over as the Trojans’ starting QB.

Longstreet is considered a raw prospect by recruiting analysts, but considering that Riley is on the hot seat it would not be a shock to see him with some serious playing time if Maiava slips up or gets hurt. What his future holds depends heavily on how USC’s next season goes. If the Trojans play well enough to keep Riley’s job, then the final 2025 starter will roll into 2026 and Longstreet will start by 2027 at the latest. If the Trojans fall short of expectations again and Riley loses his job, however, then he is just as likely to enter the transfer portal as he is to start in 2026 or beyond with the Trojans.

Considering Maiava’s up and down play as well as Riley’s hot seat, the most likely outcome is that Longstreet takes over as starter by the end of 2025.

5. 5 Star Deuce Knight (Auburn, 96.50)

Prediction: 2027 Starter

Auburn’s QB room is a bit of a mess. Every scholarship QB currently on Auburn’s roster is either transferring or out of eligibility. Hugh Freeze has rectified that problem by bringing in transfers rising juniors Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma and Ashton Daniels from Stanford. They’ll battle it out for the starting job with Arnold as the favorite coming in. While the path is a little whackier, this puts Knight in pretty much the same boat as Ohio State commit Tavien St. Clair.

The most likely outcome is that the winner of the QB battle will start for the rest of their eligibility and put Knight inline to start in 2027. If either becomes a massive NFL draft prospect - or if both are awful - then he has a significant shot at starting in 2026. He is vanishingly unlikely to start as a freshman in 2025.

Subscribe now

6. 4 Star Julian Lewis (Colorado, 95.86)

Prediction: 2026 Starter

Outside of Lewis, the Buffaloes will have Liberty transfer Kaidon Slater and rising junior Ryan Staub as the other scholarship QBs on roster. Slater was a two year starter with the Flames and gained 587 yards on the ground after accounting for yardage lost on sacks. Staub has seen limited action, starting against Utah in 2023 but only throwing 4 passes this season.

Slater is thus the presumed starter only has one season of eligibility remaining. Since Staub has some experience he will probably be the primary backup, allowing Lewis to redshirt this season and be ready to start in 2026. This will probably be best for Lewis since he reclassified from the Class of 2026 and is a smaller player being listed at 6’0 and 186 lbs.

If Deion Sanders were to leave for an NFL head coaching job (say Dallas, New York, or Las Vegas) then it would be an open question if a new coaching staff would want Lewis’s size as the QB of the future. He was already passed over once this cycle by USC in favor of Husan Longstreet.

7. 4 Star Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Oregon, 95.08) & 20. 4 Star Akili Smith Jr. (Oregon,

Sagapolutele Prediction: 2027 Starter
Smith Prediction: Transfer

Sagapolutele and Smith’s fates at Oregon are intimately tied together. Oregon in general has an extremely crowded QB room where they project to have 5 scholarship QBs entering the 2025 season. This will likely slim down with the Spring transfer portal in April, but the only passer that Sagapolutele and Smith need concern themselves with is Dante Moore.

Moore is a rising junior and former 5 star recruit that transferred over from UCLA during the 2024 offseason. He is by far the highest rated QB in Eugene, and will be the starter in 2025. Between the two remaining scholarship QBs, rising redshirt sophomore Austin Novosad and rising sophomore Luke Moga, Sagapolutele and Smith are unlikely to see the field in any major capacity next season. The most likely outcome is that they will likely end up battling for the starting role in either 2026 after Moore stinks or declares for the NFL draft, or in 2027 after Moore uses up the rest of his eligibility. The loser of this battle would almost certainly transfer.

I believe Sagapolutele will win the eventual QB battle, leading to Smith transferring.

8. 4 Star Matt Zollers (Missouri, 94.01)

Prediction: 2026 Starter

Zollers will not start as a Freshman for the Tigers. Mizzou is bringing in Penn State backup QB Beau Pribula on a 7-figure NIL deal to start next season, and Zollers will be recovering from a broken ankle early this season. With backup Drew Pyne sticking around on the roster at the time of writing, it is unlikely Zollers will see the field at all in 2025 outside of some garbage time minutes.

Zollers’s future looks remarkably similar to many other of the top passers in this class. Most likely Zollers will be a shoe-in to start in 2027, or he could start in 2026 if Pribula blows up or stinks.

9. 4 Star KaMario Taylor (Mississippi State, 93.92)

Prediction: 2026 Starter or Transfer

The Bulldogs have two other scholarship QBs entering 2025: 6th year senior Blake Shapen and Florida State transfer Luke Kromenhoek. Shapen entered 2024 as the starting signal caller before suffering an injury in the 4th quarter against Florida in September. He will be the starter entering the 2025 season.

This leaves Mississippi State’s future prospects at the quarterback position split between Taylor and Kromenhoek. They will battle out for the honor to start in 2026, assuming the Bulldogs don’t bring in an experienced arm and Lebby stays around. It is a fool’s errand to try and predict who will win the battle between the two at this vantage point. But it is equally likely that Taylor will start for Mississippi State in 2026 or enter the transfer portal.

10. 4 Star Bryce Baker (North Carolina, 93.50)

Prediction: 2026 Starter or Transfer

Baker will enter a crowded QB room in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels will have 4 scholarship signal callers, including Max Johnson and Jacolby Criswell who both started games last season as well as Purdue transfer Ryan Browne. It remains to be seen if any will leave in the spring transfer portal after Bill Belichick’s first spring practices.

Because of all the returning talent, Baker probably won’t see the field in 2025 outside of injury madness. Beyond next season, the depth chart would suggest that Baker is well-posed to take the starting reins in 2026. But he was not recruited by Belichick, and it remains to be seen if a 73 year old coach who spent his entire career in the NFL would rather develop an 18 year old who started two high school seasons or grab a more experienced arm in the portal. Forecasting, it is equally likely that Baker starts in 2026 or ends up transferring.

Share

11. 4 Star Malik Washington (Maryland, 93.41)

Prediction: 2025 Starter

Washington joins in the in-state Terps as one of the most decorated passers in Maryland high school football history. He will have a chance to compete for the Terps’ starting job with 2024 starter Billy Edwards Jr. transferring to Wisconsin. He’ll have to compete with UCLA transfer and rising redshirt junior Justyn Martin. Rising redshirt junior Jayden Sauray and rising sophomore Khristian Martin are also theoretically in the mix but neither have appeared in a game in their career.

Mike Locksley has not ruled out the chance that Washington could see the field early, and with both of last year’s starter and last year’s backup leaving the program it seems more likely than not that he will take over by the end of 2025. If he does not, it would likely be difficult to keep him off the field in 2026 since he is easily the highest touted QB on Maryland’s roster.

12. 4 Star George MacIntyre (Tennessee, 93.18)

Prediction: Transfer

MacIntyre is in an enviable position. He will not have any realistic chance at starting for the Volunteers until Nico Iamaleava leaves the program. That could potentially be as soon as 2026 if he gets accurate enough for the NFL, or if there are impossible to predict injury shenanigans, but more realistically that ends up being a battle with rising sophomore Jake Merklinger in 2027 or 2028.

This wait is already on the longer side compared to other blue chip QBs, but is complicated by the Vols’ 2026 class. The Class of 2026’s #1 QB, Jared Curtis, is from Nashville and the Vols already have a commitment from the #2 QB Faizon Brandon. The class is in its very early stages and rankings can change rapidly, but that puts Tennessee in a great position to add a 5 star QB a year or two before they’d have to start. That leaves MacIntyre in an awkward position with the program unless he just turns out to be a top-flight talent. I would expect him to either transfer in 2026, or maybe start in 2027/28 depending on how Tennessee’s 2026 class ends up and Iamaleava’s pro prospects.

13. 4 Star Ryan Montgomery (Georgia, 92.49)

Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer

Montgomery will not be starting for the Bulldogs in 2025. He will still be recovering from a knee injury which wiped away his senior season and the Bulldogs have three competent veteran QBs already on roster. Rising redshirt junior Gunner Stockton is the leader in the clubhouse, but his play this season has not excluded either of rising redshirt sophomore Jaden Rashada or rising redshirt freshman Ryan Puglisi to compete for the role. It is would not be surprising if at least one transferred after the 2025 season.

It is difficult to project exactly when Montgomery would see the field since it depends so heavily on which QB emerges as the victor and how solid their play is. If Stockton establishes himself as the starter without a doubt, Montgomery could compete for the role in 2026 or 2027. If it ends up being Rashada or Puglisi, then Montgomery likely won’t have a chance until 2027 or 2028 and could very well transfer depending on what UGA’s 2026 class looks like. If none of the on-roster QBs emerge as a starter, then he could compete for the role in 2026 against a potential transfer portal arm. On balance, I think the most likely outcome is that he ends up as Georgia’s starter in 2027 or he transfers out of a crowded QB room.

14. 4 Star Antwann Hill (Memphis, 91.37)

Prediction: 2025 Starter

Hill is the only blue chip QB to sign with a Group of 5 program out of high school this decade. He is undeniably the most highly touted QB on Memphis’s roster. Despite this, he probably will not be the opening day starter for the Tigers. They brought in 6th year senior and former Nevada starter Brendon Lewis in the transfer portal. Given all his experience and Ryan Silverfield’s comments that Hill will have to compete for his role, this likely means Lewis will start in their first game against UT Chattanooga. But its hard to envision a world where Memphis lands a blue chip QB and he does not end up starting by the end of his true freshman season.

15. 4 Star Carter Smith (Wisconsin, 91.34)

Prediction: Transfer

With the Badgers bringing in San Diego State starting QB and rising sophomore Danny O’Neil it is unlikely Smith starts for the Badgers next season outside of injuries. If O’Neil stays healthy, its likely Smith is not even the primary backup as to maintain his redshirt.

The only other scholarship QB on roster for next season is rising sophomore (or redshirt freshman) Mabrey Mettauer. Mettauer was a lower rated recruit coming out of high school than Smith, but he would still likely be Smith’s primary competition when O’Neil is no longer the starter likely in 2027 or 2028. The loser of that battle would almost certainly transfer. If Luke Fickell’s hot seat results in him losing his job next season however, Smith could transfer in the shuffle. The most likely outcome is that Smith will transfer because he does not want to wait 3 years or Fickell gets fired.

Subscribe now

16. 4 Star Adam Schobel (TCU, 91.25)

Prediction: 2027 Starter

With freshman QB Hauss Hejney transferring out of the program, Schobel is the undisputed future signal caller for the Horned Frogs. He is unlikely to start in 2025 with returning starter Josh Hoover entering his redshirt junior season. But the only other passer on roster at the time of writing is rising 5th year senior Ken Seals who threw 11 passes in 2024. Schobel is most likely to take over the reins as the Horned Frogs’ starting signal caller in 2027 when Hoover leaves the program.

17. 4 Star Ty Hawkins (SMU, 91.20)

Prediction: 2027 Starter

Hawkins is in a remarkably similar situation to fellow 4 star recruit Adam Schobel. His DFW metroplex program also has an established starter who is entering their redshirt junior season in 2025 (Kevin Jennings) and in all likelihood will not relinquish that title until he leaves the program. Hawkins is also the most highly rated QB recruit in the program, and won’t have to be the primary backup in 2025 so he can maintain his redshirt. He has the inside track to start for the program in 2027 when Jennings leaves the program.

18. 4 Star KJ Lacey (Texas, 91.16)

Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer

I do not believe KJ Lacey will unseat Arch Manning as the Longhorns’ starting signal caller in 2025. Aside from injuries or Manning struggling immensely in an unforeseen manner, Lacey won’t have a chance to become the starter until Manning leaves the program. Reportedly, he wants to stay all 4 years so that would open the door for a new starter entering the 2027 season. At that point he would be facing competition from current freshman Trey Owens as well as Class of 2026 5 star and Texas commit Dia Bell. If he were to lose that competition, he would likely transfer away.

19. 4 Star Brady Hart (Texas A&M, 90.94)

Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer

Like many of his fellow blue chip quarterbacks this cycle, Hart will almost certainly not start as a freshman in 2025. This is probably best for Hart given that he reclassified from the Class of 2026 and needs some physical development. The Aggies also brought in former UAB QB and 7th year senior Jacob Zeno as a backup in the portal, meaning he will likely not have to burn his redshirt even in the event of injuries.

Hart will not get a shot at becoming starter until returning starter and rising redshirt sophomore Marcel Reed either leaves the program or gets benched. In all likelihood, this would not be until 2027 or 2028. If Reed stays for the rest of his eligibility (through the 2027 season) I find it unlikely that Hart or any other blue chip passer would wait so long. If he ended up departing following the 2026 season, then Hart would end up battling it out with current freshman Miles O’Neil and any other passers the Aggies bring in. If he does not win the job, he would likely transfer.

21. 4 Star Tramell Jones (Florida, 90.73)

Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer

Aside from injuries or unforeseen regression, Jones is not going to see serious playing time while DJ Lagway is at Florida. Jones is also not likely to be the primary backup in 2025 with Charlotte starting QB and rising sophomore Deshawn Purdie transferring to Gainesville. Assuming that Lagway fulfills his potential this likely means Jones or any other Gator QB won’t have the chance to start until 2027. At that point Jones will have to compete with Purdie and any other passer the Gators bring in. I would imagine he would transfer if he did not win the starting job.

Share

22. 4 Star Alex Manske (Iowa State, 90.72)

Prediction: 2027 Starter

Manske will not start for the Cyclones as a freshman with incumbent starter and rising redshirt junior Rocco Becht returning. He will also likely not have to be the primary backup next season with rising sophomore (or redshirt freshman) Connor Moberly already on roster. Aside from the possibility of benchings or injuries, Manske likely would not have the chance to start until Becht left the program before the 2027 season. He should have the inside track to start at that point as the most highly touted QB prospect in the program.

23. 4 Star Luke Nickel (Miami, 90.55)

Prediction: 2027 Starter

Nickel enters a wide open quarterback competition at Miami. The Hurricanes were widely expected to bring in a transfer quarterback to compete for the starting job, but at time of writing they have not appear to done so. Miami analysts largely expect 2024 backup and rising redshirt junior to become the starter with rising sophomore Judd Anderson or Nickel acting as backup. Considering Nickel’s blue chip status it doesn’t strike me as impossible for him to become the starter at some point during 2025, but not the most likely outcome. If Williams does get the starting nod, then Nickel should have the inside track for the job when Williams leaves the program in 2027.

24. 4 Star Madden Iamaleava (Arkansas, 90.11)

Prediction: 2026 Starter

By a stroke of luck, Iamaleava seems to be on a similar career arc as his older brother Nico. Arkansas’s 2024 starting QB Taylen Green is returning for his final season and, assuming he doesn’t get hurt, should be the unquestioned starter in 2025. That leaves an open competition for 2026, and Iamaleava should have the inside track to start for the Razorbacks as the highest rated signal caller on the roster. He should be able to retain his redshirt in 2025 with rising sophomore KJ Jackson acting as backup.

25. 4 Star TJ Lateef (Nebraska, 90.00)

Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer

Aside from the ever-present possibility of injury shenanigans, Lateef will not be the Cornhuskers’ starting quarterback in 2025 with Dylan Raiola at the helm. With rising redshirt senior Heinrich Haarberg and Purdue transfer rising sophomore Marcos Davila on roster, Lateef will also not have to act as the primary backup next season. As the highest rated non-Raiola quarterback on Nebraska’s roster, he should have the inside track to become the starter whenever Raiola leaves the program. At time of writing, the most likely outcome is for Lateef to chalk in as the starter entering the 2027 season after Raiola declares for the NFL draft. Although if Raiola ends up staying for 4 seasons, there is a reasonable chance that Lateef would rather transfer than wait until 2028 to start.

26. 4 Star Lloyd Jones (Texas Tech, 89.77)

Prediction: 2026 Starter or Transfer

The Red Raiders return their starting QB Behren Morton for his final year of eligibility in 2025, so Jones is vanishingly unlikely to start next season. He will also not be the primary backup with rising sophomore Will Hammond and Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis already on roster. Once Morton exits the program, Jones will be thrust into an open competition between himself, Hammond, and Griffis. Presumably, if he was not the starter by the end of the 2026 season he would transfer.

Subscribe now

27. 4 Star Blake Hebert (Notre Dame, 89.42)

Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer

The Fighting Irish have three competent starting options on roster for the 2025 season, so it is extremely unlikely Hebert will see the field in any significant capacity as a true freshman. Hebert will most likely not have a chance to start until the winner of next year’s QB battle leaves the program. Insiders believe the most likely winner will be either rising redshirt freshman CJ Carr or current backup and rising redshirt junior Steve Angeli.

Hebert’s quickest path to starting is either if Angeli wins or if Carr wins and proves himself to be a top NFL draft prospect. In either of those cases, Hebert will have a chance to compete for the starting gig entering the 2027 season. If the Notre Dame situation develops such that he is unable to compete for a job until 2028, I would expect him to transfer.

28. 4 Star Robert McDaniel (UCLA, 89.38)

Prediction: 2026 Starter or Transfer

McDaniel enters a crowded QB room in UCLA with five other scholarship passers on the roster. The presumptive starter is Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar who is the only passer on roster who has started games during his college career. Aguilar only has one year of eligibility remaining, so it will allow McDaniel to step into a competition to claim a wide-open QB battle entering the 2026 season. It would be reasonable to expect him to transfer if he did not win the job at that point.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

In human geography there exists a concept of a primate city. Sometimes that refers to when a city is exclusively governed by chimpanzees, orangutans, and gorillas but absolutely NOT bonobos. In modern use, that definition only applies to London. Everywhere else it refers to a city in a country which is much larger than all other cities and has an outsized cultural, economic, and political influence to the point where it is undeniably the “primary” city in that country. For example, Paris is the primate city of France and Lagos is the primate city of Nigeria. This concept can be easily extended to college football recruiting.

A city is considered a primate city if its population is at least twice as large as the next biggest city in the country. For example, Paris has 5.5x the population as Lyon, and Lagos has 3.7x the population of Kano. We can extend this to recruiting by seeing how many more recruits the largest metro puts out in a state compares to the next largest metro in the state. Since we are mainly interested in the highest level of recruits, we’ll narrow down to competitive recruits which are recruits who have 10+ scholarship offers from Power 4 programs. As an example, since 2021 the Phoenix metro has produced 41 competitive recruits while the Tucson area has only produced 2. Therefore, since Phoenix has over 20x the competitive recruits as Tucson, we can say Phoenix is the primate city of Arizona. But since there’s just not that many competitive recruits in America, the relative primacy values can get out of hand quickly. So instead we’ll express primacy as a percentage. We’ll say Phoenix produced 95% of Arizona’s competitive recruits instead of saying they had 20x as much as Tucson.

This tells us that many more recruits are in Phoenix than anywhere else in Arizona. Thus, if a given program wanted to make it a priority to recruit Arizona, it would make sense for them to focus nearly exclusively on Phoenix. It is a measure of how geographically concentrated recruits are in a given state. Now that we have some way to measure primacy, it will be useful to see what this concentration looks like on a map.

Share

Some clear trends emerge. Outside of Georgia and Tennessee, the southeast appears to not be particularly concentrated. Empirically that just means there’s lots of good players without many cities, but it suggests that it might be difficult for northern and western programs to recruit since it would take major resources to physically traverse the areas. Additionally, every state west of the rockies besides California and most states in the northeast appear to be extremely concentrated within a few predictable cities. The complete absence of FBS players from the northern plains states is always stark to see, but its difficult to see as a market inefficiency since there doesn’t seem to be many players transferring up from those regions. Maps are fun, but let’s see which cities specifically are the most primate.

Subscribe now

Salt Lake City is the most primate city in the United States, truly making it a place with waterfalls, unicorns flying, and roofs thatched with gold. If we stick with a simple definition that a primate city is a city which produces 50%+ of a state’s competitive recruits, then there are 14 primate cities on a meaningful sample: Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, Salt Lake City, Seattle, Washington DC, Little Rock, Phoenix, Nashville, and St. Louis. DC and New York get special callouts as the single biggest producers of talent in multiple states. At a glance, it is difficult to tell whether it is easier to put up a fence around a state which is highly concentrated, or one which is more dispersed.

Theoretically there are sound arguments for both. If a state is extremely concentrated like Utah, then all BYU or UofU have to do is lock down Salt Lake, but there’ll be fierce competition there. If a state is dispersed like Louisiana, LSU could have an easier time knowing where to actually find talent, but it makes it easier for players to slip through the cracks. Let’s test this empirically then and see if we can get a better theoretical grounding. To gauge how well a state is locked down, we’ll look at the largest talent share accumulated by a single program in a state over the last 5 classes.

Share

There does not appear to be any meaningful correlation between how concentrated a given state’s talent is and how well an individual program can “put up a fence.” Arizona and Massachusetts, for example, are extremely concentrated with recruits going to many different schools, while every capable recruit in Oregon becomes a duck. You see the same thing on the other end of the spectrum, with Kentucky and LSU locking down their home states while Virginia remains a fierce battle.

At a glance, the chief factor for how “locked down” a state is appears to be how many programs are competing in it. 3 of the 5 largest talent shares (Arkansas, Nebraska, and Oregon) are really the only show in time for attracting top in-state talent, Kentucky’s in-state rival hasn’t put a particular emphasis in the state in recent years, and LSU has famously guarded its in-state talent better than almost anyone else in America. All of the lowest talent share states (Illinois, Georgia, California, Texas, Florida) either have multiple in-state Power 4 programs, or at least one large city with an easily accessible airport and lots of teams in its exact footprint. We can safely conclude that while the concentration of recruits within a state shapes the form of recruiting within the state, it doesn’t appear to act as a particularly limiting factor for controlling a program’s state.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

Before we go into diagnosing Bama’s problems and their results we have to establish that a problem existed in the first place. We’ll begin by looking at the Yellowhammer state high school athletes who received 10+ offers from Power 4 programs and were offered by both Auburn and Alabama. This group of athletes which received 10+ offers we’ll call “competitive recruits.” They received an above average amount of offers, and thus were almost certainly being seriously pursued by multiple major football programs. We only care about if they were offered by both Auburn and Alabama at this moment because it can give us some indication as to who did a better job at recruiting the competitive in-state recruits when both were involved.

Share

Auburn won. Auburn won and it’s not even kind of close. There were 14 competitive in-state recruits which had offers from both, and Auburn won half of them. Furthermore, Alabama only managed to grab two of the three lowest rated recruits, both of which are abundant interior offensive linemen. There are many ways to try and measure how much a given program “puts up a fence” around a metro or state but locking your biggest rival out of any of the top 10 in-state recruits absolutely counts. But when is the last time Auburn won the state?

Really, we want to see if Alabama “put up a fence” around its home state in the past. If Alabama did put up a fence, then most of the best in-state recruits consistently committed to the Crimson Tide when the Tide wanted them. That means we want to see if Alabama met three conditions:

1. A plurality of the in-state talent committed to Alabama

2. A significant proportion of in-state recruits with an Alabama offer ended up committing

3. Alabama got a significant amount of in-state recruits

We can measure these conditions! It will be useful to only consider competitive recruits as we defined them earlier. This way we will not give either program extra credit for filling out the bottom portion of their recruiting classes with glorified in-state PWOs. We will measure each with the following metrics:

1. Competitive Talent Share: The proportion of the total recruiting rating which committed to Alabama.

   1. (Total Rating of Alabama Commits) / (Total Rating of AL Recruits)

2. Commitment Rate: The proportion of players with a Alabama offer which committed to Alabama.

   1. (# of Alabama Commits) / (# of Recruits with Alabama Offers)

3. Total Commits: The number of players committed to Alabama

So now that we have some tools to measure how well Alabama put up a fence around the state, how well have they done in the past compared to this cycle?

Subscribe now

Looking back to 2021, the final class recruited without the guarantee of NIL money, Alabama had consistently won the state regardless of measure. Auburn quickly changed its fortunes in 2024 and became extremely competitive in-state likely due to some combination of new energy from Hugh Freeze and Nick Saban suddenly retiring in January. But 2025 marks a significant turning point within the rivalry where Auburn unequivocally trounced Alabama for the first time in at least 5 classes. Since we have strongly established this is significant movement, why do we think this happened? We’ll start with a geographic analysis first.

Share

There are 6 metropolitan areas in Alabama: Birmingham, Huntsville, Montgomery, Mobile, and Tuscaloosa with Russell county as a suburb to Columbus, GA. For the purposes of high school recruiting, we are chiefly concerned with the area around state capital Birmingham in the center of the state and the area around Mobile in the southernmost point of the state. Historically, Alabama has always recruited its state well, but they tend to do the best in Birmingham since they’re only 50 miles apart. Mobile has been more of a battleground which Alabama won more often under Saban. This makes it a bit tougher road for the Crimson Tide in cycles such as 2025 with down Birmingham years.

Subscribe now

2025 was the worst year for Birmingham since over the last 5 recruiting cycles at the same time when the Crimson Tide’s home city Tuscaloosa didn’t produce a single competitive recruit. Furthermore, there were more competitive recruits out of rural Alabama than any other individual metro. 4 of those 7 recruits even came from the Wiregrass region in the southeastern portion of the state closer to Auburn. Given that there were fewer recruits in areas advantageous to the Crimson Tide, it would be safe to say that Alabama had as much of an uphill battle as that program can have in-state.

It would have been reasonable to expect Alabama to take a bit of a step back in-state with a new coaching staff which has spent most of their career outside of the southeast. Especially when they’re going up against recruiting aficionado and Dixie native Hugh Freeze over at Auburn. Doubly so when the first class happens to coincide with a down year in Birmingham and an up year in the Wiregrass region. Those probably match up to the two of the larger factors behind their in-state struggles: bad geographic luck and getting straight-up out gunned by a coaching staff more familiar with the area. The single biggest factor, however, seems to be a bet by DeBoer’s staff that they can put together competitive rosters while ignoring the deep south.

Share

In the class of 2025, Alabama had as many recruits come from California (7) as they did from the deep south (7). They signed more players from the suburbs of Philadelphia (2) and the DFW metroplex (2) than they did from anywhere inside of the Atlanta metropolitan area (1). They have more Canadians than recruits from Louisiana. They did not sign a single player from Miami, Charlotte, or Nashville. It is safe to say that the dearth of players from the south is an unusual composition for the recruiting class of an SEC power.

There’s two possibilities for how this class with a dearth of southern talent came to be:

1. Kalen DeBoer’s staff made a conscious bet that it would be more efficient to try and get talent from everywhere across the country than focusing on the south

2. Their fellow SEC (and Floridian) powers have done such a better job at locking down their own backyards that Alabama got locked out of the southern talent, and thus had to pivot

Both almost certainly played a factor to some extent, and frankly it doesn’t really matter if Alabama continues to get boxed out of the south if they can keep building talented classes. It just becomes contingent on the Crimson Tide continue to attract 10+ blue chips who grew up thousands of miles away without the powers of Nick Saban guaranteeing 11+ win seasons. If you don’t think that is a good bet, fixing it starts with focusing on getting the easier to grab talent down south.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

Since the 2025 class has pretty much run its course and we have a few months before the 2026 class really picks up (and the holidays lol) I will probably be going for some less frequent but more in-depth pieces like this for given classes/regions/sporadic NFL topics that catch my eye. If you have anything you’d like to see me discuss in particular, feel free to drop a comment, DM me, or send a message in the TEP chat. Thanks! - CRM

Share

Oregon attained the #1 class in the nation today chiefly by flipping two recruits: 5 Star CB Na’eem Offord, previously committed to Ohio State, and 4 Star QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, previously committed to California. They also benefitted by flipping 4 Star LB Gavin Nix from Miami earlier in the week before the beginning of the ESP. It would be shortsighted to not acknowledge another critical factor: they did not get any players flipped away from them.

The Ducks and Texas were the only teams which moved up within the Top 5, and just so happened to be the only teams which did not lose any recruits in their class. I need to look into whether being able to keep your own commitments is a sustainable action class over class, but it is undeniable that defensive, internal recruiting is key to building a strong class.

Oregon (and Texas) finished out strong on ESD, but who else rose up the rankings yesterday?

Subscribe now

Florida State had the biggest single-day movement of any program on the first day of the Early Signing Period. They follow the trend of their in-state rival the Florida Gators in going on a tear at the end of the cycle to pull out a respectable class from the jaws of misery. How did they manage this feat while losing their highest rated recruit - 5 Star IOL Soloman Thomas - to LSU?

Simple: they flipped 4 recruits in a single day, 3 of which were blue chip prospects. All of them come from either Georgia or central/northern Florida. 3/4 were on the offensive side of the ball, and 2 of them were previously committed to in-state opponents. This might suggest that even amidst their down season they are still able to persuade nearby recruits to come to the program which is a good sign. However it is equally likely that the specific recruits they flipped were not essential to their old programs’ classes and thus didn’t receive much defensive pressure. It’s difficult to say from this vantage point.

Instead of making a claim and sticking to it, I’m just going to be a coward and show you all the flips that happened yesterday.

Share

Unfortunately not everyone can be a winner on the recruiting trail. And this cycle, UCLA and Minnesota were the two biggest losers on ESD. UCLA was hit particularly hard by losing its QB of the future Madden Iamaleava (younger brother of Nico) to Arkansas as well as two other recruits. A funny little note is that UCLA had two players flip to Arkansas in specific! I don’t know if there’s any real mechanism behind that, but I do find it funny.

Minnesota is the same story more or less, losing two commits to other P4 programs that they were not able to compensate for with players not previously P4 committed. In fact they only brought on a single new player into their class yesterday - an unranked kicker from rural Minnesota named Daniel Jackson. Not exactly a move which will send you shooting up the rankings.

Subscribe now

As I alluded to earlier, there were 60 players who previously were not committed to a Power 4 program which committed to one yesterday. That would be far too long of a table to list them all out in this post, so here are the 30 highest rated players who made their decisions yesterday. The two biggest names are 5 Stars DL Jahkeem Stewart and WR Jerome Myles. Stewart is an interesting case, as between transferring high schools and reclassifying into the Class of 2025, he only has a single season of varsity high school under his belt as a Sophomore in 2023. Time will tell if he can develop into his fantastic athletic profile and become a force on the field.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

Subscribe now

Florida officially announced that Billy Napier would return as the head coach in 2025 on November 7th. Then Freshman QB DJ Lagway returned from injury for an upset win against LSU on November 16th. Since that time, Florida has gained commitments from 9 new high school players. All of which were either directly flipped from a rival program or were previously committed elsewhere. It is a fools errand to try and parse what exactly has caused these players to change their mind - the late winning streak, Lagway’s immense promise, or the stability of Napier’s position - but it is undeniable that the Gators are succeeding at persuading new players to enter the program.

Momentum began to snowball last week after the Gators upset Ole Miss and likely knocked them out of the playoffs. Following that upset the Gators managed to flip 7 recruits in a single week. All but two are 4 star recruits, and the two which weren’t will add some much needed depth to their skill positions. I find most striking that 5/7 are from either the Atlanta or Miami metro regions. This would suggest that after the Napier administration got their second lease on life, they altered their focus to try and get talented players from the two biggest metros in their footprint.

The train doesn’t look like its over either. On3’s industry experts have logged predictions for blue chip safeties Lagonza Hayward and Hylton Stubbs to come to Gainesville. It is an absolutely remarkable turnaround for a program that was expected to let go of their coach at season’s end.

Elsewhere in college football, I’m keeping my eyes on what shakes out at the schools who have fired their head coaches. We’ve already seen a some decommits from UCF and West Virginia, so I’m interested to see how much these classes deteriorate. The transfer portal has started whirring up, and I’ll be on the lookout on the transfer portal in particular.

A quick programming note, with the Early Signing Period on December 4th-6th I will be updating with daily blog posts following each day. We’ll note major flips, rankings shake ups, and other notable wider trends.

Share

Flips

• Indiatlantic, FL 4 Star QB Brady Hart (Michigan → Texas A&M)

  • Hart reclassified into the Class of 2025.

• Loganville, GA 4 Star DL Joseph Mbatchou (Texas → Florida)

  • Mbatchou was previously committed to Florida earlier this cycle.

• Shawnee, KS 4 Star EDGE Jayden Woods (Penn State → Florida)

• Loxahatchee, FL 4 Star LB Ty Jackson (USC → Florida)

• Monroe, NC 4 Star S Jordan Young (Clemson → Michigan)

• Fairburn, GA 4 Star OT Tavaris Dice (Auburn → Florida)

• Fort Valley, GA 4 Star IOL Peyton Joseph (Florida State → Georgia Tech)

• Fort Lauderdale, FL 4 Star RB Byron Louis (Florida State → Florida)

• Atlanta, GA 4 Star EDGE London Merritt (Ohio State → Colorado)

• Portland, OR 4 Star OT Zac Stascausky (Washington → Oregon)

• East Lansing, MI 3 Star RB Jace Clarizio (Michigan State → Alabama)

• West Chester, OH 3 Star LB Grant Beerman (Purdue → Illinois)

  • Beerman will probably become a favorite of the Barstool crowd in a couple years if he develops into a starter.

• Murfreesboro, TN 3 Star RB Daune Morris (USC → Tennessee)

• Lynchburg, VA 3 Star WR Jordan Scott (Arizona State → Florida State)

• Atlanta, GA 3 Star OT Jahari Medlock (Cincinnati → Florida)

• Richmond, VA 3 Star CB Terrance Edwards (West Virginia → Michigan State)

• League City, TX 3 Star WR Muizz Tounkara (Arizona → Florida)

• Dacula, GA 3 Star WR Jordan Allen (Louisville → Georgia Tech)

• Stuart, FL 3 Star EDGE Alexander McPherson (Oklahoma State → Colorado)

• Centerville, OH 3 Star OT Kuol Kuol (Purdue → Iowa State)

• Cartersville, GA 3 Star CB Jordyn Woods (Cincinnati → Ohio State)

• Cincinnati, OH 3 Star IOL Tucker Kattus (Kentucky → Clemson)

• Irmo, SC 3 Star CB Elgin Sessions (West Virginia → Georgia Tech)

Commitments

• Mobile, AL 4 Star OT Carde Smith (Colorado)

  • Smith was previously committed to Alabama.

• Petal, MS 4 Star DL Kelten Mickell (TCU)

  • Mickell was previously committed to Liberty.

• Athens, GA 3 Star QB Hezekiah Millender (Georgia)

  • Georgia already has a commitment from 4 Star QB Ryan Montgomery this cycle. Montgomery was hurt early this season, so it will be interesting to see if this impacts his commitment at all.

• East St. Louis, IL 3 Star WR Dejerrian Miller (Kentucky)

• Lawrenceville, GA 3 Star OT Dennis Uzochukwu (Georgia)

• Palestine, TX 3 Star DL Perry Cole (TCU)

• Fleming Island, FL 3 Star CB Kaylib Singleton (Syracuse)

• Brooklyn Park, MN 3 Star EDGE Ismael Kante (Illinois)

• Seffner, FL 3 Star LB Cameron White (Louisville)

• Plant City, FL 3 Star QB Chris Denson (Clemson)

• Hickory, NC 3 Star WR Jamien Little (Duke)

• Bryan, TX 3 Star WR Jaquise Martin (Houston)

• San Bruno, CA 3 Star IOL Peter Langi (Washington)

• Fort Worth, TX 3 Star WR Quentin Gibson (Colorado)

• Plainfield, IL 3 Star OT Kaveon Lee (Minnesota)

• Hilliard, OH 3 Star LB Terris Dudley (NC State)

• Albany, OR 3 Star TE Austin Simmons (Washington)

• Columbus, TX 3 Star ATH Grayson Rigdon (NC State)

  • Rigdon will be playing RB for the Wolfpack.

• Cincinnati, OH 3 Star OT Jahmir Davis (West Virginia)

• Ashburn, VA 3 Star ATH Trey Dudley (Syracuse)

  • Dudley was formerly committed to James Madison and will be playing LB for the Orange.

• Dyersburg, TN 3 Star OT Breyden Turnage (Mississippi State)

• Columbus, OH 3 Star CB Tyrell Russell (West Virginia)

• Frankfort, IL 3 Star RB Zion Gist (Michigan State)

• Pensacola, FL 3 Star IOL Tyler Folmar (Louisville)

• Miami, FL 3 Star EDGE Deangelo Thompson (Syracuse)

• North Royalton, OH 3 Star IOL Brandon Homady (West Virginia)

• Lancaster, TX 3 Star LB Ke’Breion Winston (Baylor)

• Mission Hills, CA NR CB Jonah Martinez (TCU)

• Fort Valley, GA NR WR Isaiah Mitchell (Cincinnati)

• Platte City, MO NR EDGE Chandavian Bradley (Oklahoma State)

• Saint George, UT NR OT Simona Fuailetolo (Oklahoma State)

• Lake City, FL NR DL Rashod Bradley (Oklahoma State)

• Tylertown, MS NR CB Amarien Jefferson (Mississippi State)

• Crytal Springs, MS NR S Ja’Bryis Stewart (Mississippi State)

• Malvern, PA NR WR Andrew Pellicciotta (Duke)

• Smiths Station, AL NR DL Jamarcus Moye (Mississippi State)

Decommitments

• West Jordan, UT 5 Star WR Jerome Myles (USC)

  • Myles is one of three uncommitted 5 star recruits going into the Early Signing Day.

• Lyons, GA 4 Star S Lagonza Hayward (Tennessee)

  • Hayward has been projected to flip to Florida by several industry experts.

• Tampa, FL 4 Star EDGE Jesse Harrold (LSU)

• Warner Robins, GA 4 Star OT Chastan Brown (UCF)

• Santa Ana, CA 4 Star WR Marcus Harris (Oklahoma)

• Rabun Gap, GA 4 Star IOL Justin Hasenhuetl (Georgia Tech)

• Lehi, UT 3 Star TE Bear Tenney (Nebraska)

• Montgomery, AL 3 Star DL Christopher Johnson (Mississippi State)

• Buford, GA 3 Star LB Kenyon Rivera (Kansas)

• Fort Wayne, IN 3 Star LB Kimar Nelson (Purdue)

• The Woodlands, TX 3 Star K Scott Starzyk (Iowa)

• Cincinnati, OH 3 Star TE Caden Piening (UCF)

• Tampa, FL 3 Star CB Serious Stinyard (West Virginia)

• Huntingtown, MD 3 Star DL Evan Powell (West Virginia)

• Wichita Falls, TX 3 Star WR Isaiah Anderson (Texas Tech)

Reclassifications

• Watkinsville, GA 4 Star Zach Weeks (LSU)

  • Weeks has two older brothers (Whit and West) who are currently LSU LBs.

Ratings Changes

• 4 Stars → 3 Stars

  • Greenwich, CT OT Matty Augustine (Notre Dame)

  • Cincinnati, OH CB Jaimier Scott (Wisconsin)

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

Subscribe now

The biggest headline of the week comes from Detroit native Bryce Underwood. He has been the #1 recruit in the 2025 class for its entire cycle and has been committed to LSU since January. Reporting outside of Michigan beat wishcasting didn’t indicate him as a significant flip candidate - until around Halloween. What changed in this time to make such a strong recruit waver on his commitment? Did he have a burning desire to stay close to home? Did Sherrone Moore give him the pitch of his career? Was he wowed by the incredible sights of South Quad? Was it because of Connor Stalions? We’ll never know for sure what was in his heart of hearts - but it’s safe to say that being offered $12 million in NIL money swayed him.

Underwood’s recruitment was absolutely not the first time that a top QB’s recruitment turned into a bidding war, but it represents a significant escalation in the NIL arms race. It also represents an extreme ray of hope for the Wolverines amid a disappointing season on the field. If Underwood were to fulfill a significant proportion of his immense potential, that would nearly single handedly solve their passing offense woes and completely preclude the need for Michigan to try out portal QBs.

Other seats were filled on the QB carousel this week. Former USC commit Julian Lewis chose Colorado, former Michigan commit Carter Smith decided upon Wisconsin, and DFW area 3 star Kevin Sperry chose Florida State over Oklahoma. All of the top 25 QBs in the 2025 class are now pledged to a program, but not necessarily settled. The next domino to watch out for is to see if toolsy Auburn commit Deuce Knight stays with the Tigers or flips to in-state Ole Miss. Once the picture is more settled, we’ll take a look at the future prognosis of all of the blue chip commits from this class.

By the hair on their chinny chin chin, Georgia has managed to overtake Ohio State’s claim for the #1 class in the nation. Their differences are minute, and liable to change with every passing day on the back of single flips. This week the difference came down to the defensive line. Ohio State lost a commitment from Philadelphia 4 Star EDGE Zahir Mathis while Georgia gained one from Atlanta 4 Star EDGE Chase Linton. This race is liable to change in the last two weeks before the Early Signing Period, especially with Alabama lingering in 3rd. Georgia has the clearest path to the #1 class since all they would need to secure it would be commitment from uncommitted in-state 5 Star DL Justus Terry.

There are some other minor notes I’m keeping my eyes on. USC has been finishing the class strong, flipping a 5 star QB last week and adding 3 trench players to the class this week. Florida still has a disappointing class relative to their historical expectations, but the university’s restated commitment to Billy Napier has seemed to be a major boon on the recruiting trail. They’ve raised 8 places up in the rankings over the past two weeks (#39 → #31), the 4th-biggest jump of any P4 program in that span. I am also surprised to see Clemson drop out of the top 25 this season. I have them at #29 after they lost 4 Star DB Tae Harris to Georgia Tech. It doesn’t appear to be a fluke of my rankings being particularly low on small classes either - On3 has them at #18 but 247Sports has them at #30.

Share

Flips

• Belleville, MI 5 Star QB Bryce Underwood (LSU → Michigan)

  • Underwood is the #1 recruit in the 2025 class and has been allegedly given a $12 million NIL deal to stay home and wear Maize and Blue. I am very excited about this :)

• Winter Garden, FL 4 Star S Ivan Taylor (Michigan → Alabama)

  • Ivan Taylor is the son of longtime NFL DB Ike Taylor.

• Detroit, MI 4 Star CB Elijah Dotson (Pittsburgh → Michigan)

• Palatine, IL 4 Star DL Jaylen Williams (Michigan → Wisconsin)

• Cedartown, GA 4 Star S Tae Harris (Clemson → Georgia Tech)

• Gainesville, GA 4 Star OT Alex Payne (North Carolina → USC)

• Denton, TX 3 Star QB Kevin Sperry (Oklahoma → Florida State)

  • After losing 4 Star QB Tramell Jones to their in-state rival Florida, the Noles still manage to secure a passer for this class. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is left high and dry without a passer this cycle after some underwhelming QB play this season.

• Loxahatchee, FL 3 Star IOL Daniel Pierre Louis (Florida State → Florida)

• Tampa, FL 3 Star RB Justin Thurman (Notre Dame → Kansas)

• Athens, AL 3 Star OT Spencer Dowland (Auburn → Mississippi State)

• Folsom, CA 3 Star EDGE Nela Tupou (Utah → USC)

Commitments

• Carrolton, GA 4 Star QB Julian Lewis (Colorado)

  • Lewis was previously committed to USC before they seemingly took Longstreet over him. He has a serious chance to start next season assuming Shedeur Sanders enters the draft.

• Ponte Verde, FL 4 Star QB Carter Smith (Wisconsin)

  • Smith was previously committed to Michigan before their efforts to flip Underwood began in earnest.

• Atlanta, GA 4 Star EDGE Chase Linton (Georgia)

  • Linton was previously committed to Rutgers this summer.

• Loganville, GA 4 Star DL Joseph Mbatchou (Texas)

  • Mbatchou was previously committed to Florida.

• Humboldt, TN 3 Star DL Stephon Shivers (Florida)

  • Shivers was previously committed to Georgia.

• Charlotte, NC 3 Star WR Arrion Concepcion (Kansas State)

  • Concepcion was previously committed to NC State, and has an older brother who plays WR for the Wolfpack.

• Raymond, MS 3 Star OT Saquon Miles (Mississippi State)

• Jenks, OK 3 Star IOL Cash Jacobsen (USC)

• Murfreesboro, TN 3 Star CB Zyntreacs Otey (Purdue)

• Anaheim, CA 3 Star RB Quaid Carr (Washington)

• Chattanooga, TN 3 Star LB Joel Lowenberg (Wake Forest)

• Bradenton, FL 3 Star K Brunno Reus (Florida State)

• Detroit, MI 3 Star OT Danilo Guberinich (Texas Tech)

• Middleburg, FL 3 Star DL BJ Carter (Iowa State)

• Covington, GA 3 Star DL Timothy Griffin (Cincinnati)

• Mobile, AL 3 Star S Jayven Williams (Mississippi State)

• Las Vegas, NV 3 Star IOL Daniel Boyd (Duke)

• San Antonio, TX NR ATH Myron Robinson (Arizona)

• Fort Worth, TX NR WR JD Davis (Kansas State)

• Bronx, NY NR DL Patrick Tackie (Kansas State)

Decommitments

• Philadelphia, PA 4 Star EDGE Zahir Mathis (Ohio State)

• Mobile, AL 4 Star OT Carde Smith (Alabama)

• Newman, GA 3 Star CB Derrion Horsley (Mississippi State)

• West Palm Beach, FL 3 Star RB Jaylin Brown (Louisville)

• Toccoa, GA 3 Star RB Javin Gordon (Duke)

• Middleburg, FL 3 Star DL Bernard Carter (Iowa State)

• Longview, TX 3 Star LB Seth McFarland (Houston)

• Long Beach, CA 3 Star CB Joshua Tuchek (Arizona)

Ratings Changes

• 4 Stars → 5 Stars

  • Geneva, IL WR Talyn Taylor (Georgia)

  • Wallingford, CT OT Will Black (Notre Dame)

• 3 Stars → 4 Stars

  • Vancouver, BC, Canada QB Blake Hebert (Notre Dame)

    • I would imagine this is the highest rated international player in On3’s database. Or at least the highest rated international QB.

  • Millville, NJ WR Lotzeir Brooks (Alabama)

  • Orlando, FL WR Isaiah Mizell (Arizona)

  • Chatsworth, CA ATH Jae’on Young (California)

  • Ellenwood, GA RB Bo Walker (Georgia)

  • Marietta, GA LB Anthony Kruah (Georgia)

  • Oswego, IL LB Carson Cooney (Iowa)

  • Fairfield, OH ATH Noah King (Kansas State)

  • Greer, SC TE Mikkel Skinner (Kentucky)

  • Phenix City, AL WR Daylyn Upshaw (Miami)

  • Newburgh, IN DL Benny Patterson (Michigan)

  • Omaha, NE LB Pierce Mooberry (Nebraska)

  • Wayne, NJ WR Elijah Burress (Notre Dame)

  • Milton, FL EDGE Tylon Lee (Ole Miss)

  • Brooklyn, NY WR Lyrick Samuel (Penn State)

  • Portsmouth, VA ATH Matthew Outten (Virginia)

  • Olney, MD WR DaMarion Fowlkes (Pittsburgh)

  • Havelock, NC EDGE Donovan Darden (South Carolina)

  • Charlotte, NC DL Charles House (Tennessee)

  • Gainesville, FL EDGE Nicolas Clayton (Wisconsin)

• 5 Stars → 4 Stars

  • Royersford, PA QB Matt Zollers (Missouri)

    • It’s worth noting that Zollers suffered an ugly ankle injury early this season and has played very little of senior year.

  • Jacksonville, FL WR Jaime Ffrench (Texas)

• 4 Stars → 3 Stars

  • Detroit, MI CB Alex Graham (Colorado)

  • Athens, GA WR Landon Roldan (Georgia)

  • North Aurora, IL WR Terrence Smith (Iowa)

  • Chatsworth, CA WR Jaden Nickens (Kansas)

    • Nickens plans to play both basketball and football at KU.

  • Melbourne, FL DL Brandon Brown (LSU)

  • Denton, MD ATH Zymear Smith (Maryland)

  • Savannah, GA RB Donovan Johnson (Michigan)

  • Fort Worth, TX IOL Henry Fenuku (Missouri)

  • St. Louis, MO S Charles Bass (Missouri)

  • Elmhurst, IL DL Joseph Reiff (Notre Dame)

  • Washington, DC Jayvon McFadden (Ohio State)

  • Denton, TX QB Kevin Sperry (Florida State)

  • Gautier, MS WR Dillon Alfred (Ole Miss)

  • Trenton, NJ LB Kamar Archie (Rutgers)

  • Jersey City, NJ LB DJ McClary (Rutgers)

  • Warner Robins, GA CB Michael Clayton (Rutgers)

  • Murrieta, CA QB Bear Bachmeier (Stanford)

  • Columbia, SC CB Onis Konanbanny (Tennessee)

  • DeSoto, TX RB Deondre Riden (Texas A&M)

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

Share

According to my rankings, On3, and 247Sports, Ohio State has the best 2025 recruiting class in America. They undeniably have accumulated many talented players, but I think this is more a story about how Alabama’s former #1 class has fallen so quickly. In this past week they’ve had 3 blue chips commitments either flip to another P4 school or decommit. This includes in-state RB Anthony Rogers who has been committed to the program since his sophomore year in 2023. Their class and roster are still playoff-caliber talented so it would be an overreaction to be raising doom and gloom, but it is absolutely reason for concern to lose so much talent this late.

One of the talented players to leave the Crimson Tide’s class is 5 star WR Caleb Cunningham. He flipped to his premier in-state program Ole Miss. The Rebels have surged this week by flipping 3 commits from some of their SEC rivals. Considering the downward slope of some of their rivals and their near-lock to make the playoff, this momentum could build into a top 10 class by month’s end. In particular, the Rebs could look to make a push for in-state 5 Star QB Deuce Knight who is already committed to Auburn and flipped from Notre Dame in October.

A potential Knight commitment would be just another domino in the developing high school QB carousel. It saw some major movement this week, with 5 star Husan Longstreet flipping to USC from Texas A&M which caused a subsequent decommitment from 4 star Julian Lewis. Lewis is reportedly favored to commit to Colorado, but visited Georgia on Saturday. Georgia currently has a commitment from Ohio 4 star Ryan Montgomery. Texas A&M is currently left without a QB commit in the current class.

This went down the same week as Jacksonville 4 Star Tramell Jones Jr. flipped from Florida State to their rival Gators. This leaves Florida State without a young QB currently in the class, but they are allegedly the front runners for 4 star former Michigan commit Carter Smith. Michigan is without a QB in this class, and Bryce Underwood he seemingly publicly rebuffed an offer of $10.5M in NIL money. But then again, the instagram stories of 17 year olds is not necessarily the most iron-clad contract in the world. So goes the carousel with three weeks until Early Signing Day.

Subscribe now

Flips:

• Ackerman, MS 5 Star WR Caleb Cunningham (Alabama → Ole Miss)

  • Cunningham was the first 5 Star to flip within the final month before Early Signing Day. His flip represents a resounding success for Ole Miss after vanquishing Georgia on the field and a potential CFP spot, and marks as Alabama’s drop from the #1 recruiting class in the nation.

• Corona, CA 5 Star QB Husan Longstreet (Texas A&M → USC)

  • Longstreet is the first 5 star QB to flip within the last month before ESD. Depending on how Jayden Maiava finishes out the rest of the season, the local SoCal kid could have a chance to start next season with Miller Moss transferring out.

• Jacksonville, FL 4 Star QB Tramell Jones Jr. (Florida State → Florida)

  • Another devastating blow for Florida State’s 2025 class amid a horrible 2024 season happens to salvage their in-state rivals’ faltering class. They are rumored to be in the running for former Michigan commit 4 star QB Carter Smith (Fort Myers, FL). Jones is

• Los Angeles, CA 4 Star EDGE Hayden Lowe (USC → Miami)

• Shreveport, LA 4 Star IOL Devin Harper (LSU → Ole Miss)

  • Ole Miss continues their excellent momentum on the recruiting trail by nabbing another blue chipper from an SEC rival.

• Overland Park, KS 4 Star EDGE Dawson Merritt (Alabama → Nebraska)

  • Merritt is listed by On3 as an edge, but is likely to play ILB at Nebraska.

• Irving, TX 4 Star WR Terry Shelton (Arizona → TCU)

• Indianapolis, IN 3 Star EDGE Tyrone Burrus (Louisville → Indiana)

• Carrollton, GA 3 Star CB Shamar Arnoux (USC → Auburn)

• Fort Walton Beach, FL 3 Star CB Dante Core (Auburn → Ole Miss)

• Garland, TX 3 Star WR Chance Ables (TCU → Arizona State)

  • Ables’ flip comes off the back of TCU securing a commitment from higher rated DFW WR Terry Shelton.

• Wayne, NJ 3 Star ATH Nolan James (Boston College → Notre Dame)

• Milton, FL 3 Star TE Joseph Skipworth (Kansas → Mississippi State)

• Oakland, CA 3 Star OT Siosiua Vete (Stanford → BYU)

• Bay St. Louis, MS 3 Star K Evan Noel (Arkansas → Florida)

Commitments:

• Tampa, FL 4 Star CB Graceson Littleton (Texas)

  • Littleton was previously committed to Clemson.

• Chatsworth, CA 4 Star WR Jaden Nickens (Kansas)

  • Nickens was previously committed to Oklahoma, and plans to play both basketball and football at KU.

• Baltimore, MD 4 Star S Byron Baldwin (Indiana)

  • Baldwin was previously committed to Indiana.

• Lynchburg, VA 3 Star WR Jordan Scott (Arizona State)

• Foley, AL 3 Star DL AJ Prim (NC State)

• Memphis, TN 3 Star LB Austin Howard (Vanderbilt)

• Columbia, MS 3 Star WR Anson Lewis (Mississippi State)

• Warren, OH 3 Star EDGE Chaz Coleman (Penn State)

• Petal, MS 3 Star DL Mason Clinton (Mississippi State)

• Hammond, IN 3 Star WR Lebron Hill (Vanderbilt)

• Berlin, MD 3 Star S Davin Chandler (Vanderbilt)

• Greensboro, NC 3 Star WR Koredell Bartley (Wake Forest)

• Raleigh, NC 3 Star WR Jerron Blackwell (Wake Forest)

• Smyrna, GA NR EDGE Kamron Neal (Cincinnati)

• London, UK NR P Andy Quinn (Boston College)

• Coppell, TX NR WR Harry Hassman (Arizona State)

• Selma, AL NR WR Erick Smith (Auburn)

• Fort Wayne, IN NR Bubba Craig (Arkansas)

Decommitments:

• Carrolton, GA 4 Star QB Julian Lewis (USC)

  • The Trojans chose the local product Longstreet over Lewis, and so Lewis has understandably decided to take his talents elsewhere. Lewis is currently favored to commit to Colorado according to On3’s RPM and he visited Georgia last weekend. The Bulldogs currently have 4 Star QB Ryan Montgomery committed for the 2025 class.

• Montgomery, AL 4 Star RB Anthony Rodgers (Alabama)

  • Rogers is the 3rd blue chip to decommit from Alabama this week, and is the highest rated uncommitted player from Alabama in this cycle.

• Houston, TX 3 Star WR Ja’Kayden Ferguson (Kentucky)

• Hickory, NC 3 Star ATH Jamien Little (Wake Forest)

• Andover, MN 3 Star WR Cameron Begalle (Minnesota)

• Charlotte, NC 3 Star WR Arrion Concepcion (NC State)

  • Concepcion is the younger brother of current Sophomore NC State WR KC Concepcion.

• Bend, OR 3 Star WR Jack Foley (Wake Forest)

Reclassifications:

• Aledo, TX 4 Star RB Raycine Guillory (Uncommitted)

  • Guillory has reclassified from the Class of 2026 to the Class of 2025. He is from the DFW metro area, and is currently favored to go to one of SMU or Texas according to On3’s RPM.

• Tampa, FL 4 Star CB Dominick Kelly (Georgia)

Rating Changes

• 3 Stars → 4 Stars

  • Melbourne, FL DL Brandon Brown (LSU)

• 4 Stars → 3 Stars

  • Highland Home, AL EDGE CJ May (Louisville)

  • Boerne, TX OT Logan Schram (TCU)

  • Zionsville, IN WR Eugene Hilton Jr (Wisconsin)

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

Subscribe now

If the season were to end today, Ohio State would only have to defeat Boise State and Miami to reach the semifinal where they’d play the ultimate victor of the Tennessee-Notre Dame-Oregon gauntlet. According to my simulations, this would end up with the Buckeyes in the semifinal game a whopping 71.5% of the time. Only Texas has a more than 50% chance to make it that far, and they have a bye and a roughly 25% chance to play Indiana. No other team is in the same universe. From that point the odds even out and they are roughly as likely to win it all as any other of the top 5 teams in the country.

The exact probabilities in this simulations have fairly wide error bars. The method to generate the win probability in a given hypothetical matchup (elo) does not consider anything outside of who they’ve played and if they’ve won. This leaves out a ton of important factors - QB caliber, OL play, any injuries, etc. - so we shouldn’t view 11.5% as hugely different from 20.4%.

That is to say, Ohio State is not a markedly better team than any of the heavy hitters this year. Their loss to Oregon proves that. But because they have a disproportionately easy path to have a chance to finally make it to the promised land, that gives them a leg up over their competition to finally taking home the national championship. And they only get that leg up in the event that they do not win their conference, which seems incredibly unfair.

Share

The important thing to takeaway here is that the #5 seed in the CFP, with its automatic conference qualifiers and unevenly talented conferences, has a structural advantage within the tournament structure. Time will tell to see if it ends up as a long term problem but it may need future reform. The real galaxy brain take here is that Oregon could actually be in a better position in the CFP if they end up losing the Big Ten championship. If you wanted a very clever and contrarian social media take, one could argue that Oregon should try to lose the Big Ten championship since the path to make it from 5 (or maybe even 6) is probably easier than the path from 1. That would never ever happen, but it would get you clicks!

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Share

Despite an ugly loss against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss this weekend, Georgia got some wins on the recruiting trail. The managed to flip in-state product S Rasean Dinkins from their hated rivals Georgia Tech, and they managed to bring in one-time Florida State commit WR CJ Wiley. They have a chance to grasp the #1 class in the nation if they can manage to earn commitments from the two best remaining uncommitted recruits in the state (5 Star DL Justus Terry and 4 Star EDGE Chase Linton).

Elsewhere in the country, Michigan continues its momentum by flipping Miami-metro WR Jamar Browder from NC State. Their class has steadily improved over the course of the season while their on-field play has faltered, but their final ranking depends on largely if they can manage to flip the #1 recruit in the nation and Detroit native LSU QB commit Bryce Underwood.

Subscribe now

Flips

• Warner Robins, GA 4 Star S Rasean Dinkins (Georgia Tech → Georgia)

• Fullerton, CA 4 Star TE Vander Ploog (Washington → Oregon)

  • Since my rankings punish small classes so harshly, Ploog’s commitment rockets Oregon’s small class up the rankings a fair bit.

• Miami, FL 3 Star EDGEs Darryll & Mandrell Desir (UCF → Florida State)

  • Florida State adds some much needed bodies to their light recruiting class - and they’re twins!

• Lake Worth, FL 3 Star WR Jamar Browder (NC State → Michigan)

  • Michigan’s momentum on the recruiting trail continues!

• Maize, KS 3 Star WR Bryson Hayes (Nebraska → Kansas)

• Westford, MA 3 Star RB Bo MacCormack (Syracuse → Boston College)

• Richmond, TX 3 Star S Gil Jackson (Texas Tech → TCU)

Commitments:

• Carrollton, GA 4 Star S Zelus Hicks (Texas)

  • Hicks has reclassified into the Class of 2025 from the Class of 2026.

• Milton, GA 4 Star WR CJ Wiley (Georgia)

  • Wiley was previously committed to Florida State.

Decommitments:

• Loganville, GA 3 Star DL Josiah Victor (Boston College)

• Humboldt, TN 3 Star DL Stephon Shivers (Georgia)

• Geismar, LA 3 Star EDGE Joshua Lewis (Missouri)

• Waco, TX 3 Star LB Donovan Jones (Oklahoma State)

• Seffner, FL 3 Star LB Cameron White (UCF)

• Berlin, MD 3 Star S Davin Chandler (Virginia)

• Haverford, PA 3 Star IOL Thomas Barr (West Virginia)

Notable Ratings Changes:

• 4 Stars → 3 Stars

  • Miami, FL S Antonio Branch (Colorado)

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Share

This is not all Power 4 players, and technically I do not have any guarantee that all of the “scholarship players” are actually on scholarship. But I feel safe in my assumption that all players who received a 3+ star rating coming out of high school/JUCO or in the transfer portal are on scholarship. And it is possible that some of the players from a “rural” region are actually from smaller metros which I did not bother to categorize (i.e. Macon). But those are small details which I will not sweat at this juncture.

This is an extremely rich data source and will allow us in the future to ask and answer many interesting questions. But we’ll leave that for a future date, for now I’ll just leave you all with some quick observations.

Subscribe now

Atlanta, the DFW, Los Angeles, the DMV, Houston, and Miami clearly produce far and away the most P4-caliber talent of any American metro regions. It’s not even particularly close. However, I do find it a bit curious that the two metros which produce far and away the most talent (Atlanta and DFW) just so happen to contain the two largest airport hubs in the US. I’m very curious about how players from these areas which go out of state fare relative to their in-state/close to in-state counterparts.

Chicago, New York, and rural Georgia form a clear second tier. This makes sense to me. The core Big Ten teams can easily pull from Chicago for recruits to fill out their rosters, as can the eastern seaboard teams (Boston College, Rutgers, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Maryland, etc) do so for New York. Note that Greater New York here does include northern NJ which is known to produce significant amounts of talent. I can envision rural Georgia - which in this case means outside of the Atlanta and Savannah metros - fulfilling a similar role for SEC schools. I would be interested in comparing the talent level of recruits from these three areas, since in common understanding of the college football landscape might suggest that rural GA puts out more talented players then NYC/Chicago even if the volume is fairly comparable. I want to test this!

After the top 9 the curve really starts to smooth out and any sort of precise tiers would be equivalent to drawing lines in the sand. Once we get past that point we also run into cases where the recruits coming out of a given metro really only attend a handful of schools. As an example, of the 104 current scholarship P4 players from the Orlando metro, 28 of them (26.9%!) play for either UCF or Florida. For the most egregious example, 36 of the 80 scholarship P4 players from the Salt Lake City metro (45%!) play for BYU. At this juncture it is not obvious to me whether these schools should be applauded for putting up a fence around their backyards, or if it is evidence the bottom of their rosters could improve by spreading out wider. I don’t know, but I really want to look into it!

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.

Subscribe now

Share

ACC

The ACC has been dominated by its two most historically successful programs this cycle in Notre Dame and Miami. Neither has a 5 star this cycle, but their combined 28 4 stars this cycle outranks any other group of teams in the conference. With both teams trending to make the CFP this season, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic for both fanbases. Georgia Tech, Clemson, and SMU have also had respectable cycles to make up a strong second tier of the conference. SMU stands out to me because of how much they lag behind in terms of getting blue chip talent comparatively.

Florida State and North Carolina must qualify for the biggest disappointments of any team in the conference this cycle. FSU’s on-field woes with their 1-8 record after failing to make the CFP in 2023 as undefeated ACC champions have been talked to death, but it seems to have followed them onto the recruiting trail. Perliminary research has indicated they’ve struggled in Miami, but I have to look more deeply into it. North Carolina’s struggles seem to be more specifically about the uncertainty surrounding Mack Brown’s future. He is 73 years old and Adam Gorney at Rivals has reported that recruits have been receiving pitches from rival programs on the topic. Since UNC has seen three commitments flip in as many weeks (3 star TE Logan Farrell, 4 star TE Marshall Pritchett, and 3 star LB Anthony Kruah), it seems like the pitch is working.

Subscribe now

Big 12

On the whole, the conference really struggles to bring in top talent. They are the only conference without a single 5 star commitment in this class. I want to draw particular attention to Colorado. They are tied with the most blue chip commitments in the conference (5) but have a bottom 10 recruiting class amongst all Power 4 teams. How is that possible? Simple! They only have 10 commitments, tied for the 2nd-fewest of any P4 team. That severely limits your ability to bring in talent as a program and is a recipe for disaster in a roster construction sense.

I also find BYU interesting. Their recruiting is extremely poor this cycle, and my initial guess for why this might be the case is that their honor code makes recruiting talented non-LDS recruits more difficult. But you don’t see this sort of downgrade in recruiting for other P4 schools which are institutionally or culturally religious (Notre Dame, Baylor, TCU, Clemson, etc). It’s interesting that this seems to be unique to BYU.

Share

Big Ten

The Big Ten really is two conferences wrapped in one. There are 6 schools who can recruit at a CFP-contender level (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Oregon, and Washington) and then there is everyone else. Oregon in particular has impressed this cycle with the highest blue chip ratio of any class in the nation. Michigan also has been building up some momentum over the past week or so.

On the other end of the spectrum, Purdue has had a wretched run of things in this cycle. They are tied with Colorado for the 2nd-fewest commitments of any Power 4 team (10). I would suspect that even if Purdue head coach Ryan Walters makes it through this season, he will not be long for this world with the Boilermakers. Also worth paying attention here to Michigan State under new head coach Jonathan Smith. They historically have not recruited as well as their in-state rivals, but not 30-places-lower-than-Wisconsin worse! Watch this space.

Subscribe now

SEC

It’s ridiculous just how much highly-rated talent goes to the SEC. All but 4 of the teams in the conference have a top-25 recruiting class in the Power 4. Half of the conference is in the top 15! Absurd. This is a result of the southeast being so football-talent rich - and recruiting services being able to see so many of these players in summer camp services and the like - but it is still wild to see on paper.

Alabama, LSU, and Auburn all interest me as positive examples in the conference. The 2025 class at Alabama will be the last one to have any of Nick Saban’s fingerprints on it, and Kalen DeBoer has done a great job to maintain it. I am interested to see what a totally Saban-less Alabama recruiting class looks like in 2026. LSU is interesting to me because despite all of the cringe in his recruiting videos, it seems to be working! Auburn is interesting because although Hugh Freeze has had similar on-field results to Bryan Harson, it has been a completely different story on the recruiting trail.

On the opposite end of the conference though, Florida and Vanderbilt have been through the ringer. Florida’s struggles are somewhat understandable. Their head coach, Billy Napier, is on the hot seat, they’ve had a disappointing season, and they haven’t finished a season north of 0.500 in half a decade. They’re recruiting poorly compared to the rest of their conference, but its understandable why. Vanderbilt’s struggles are far more difficult to come to terms with. In the midst of their best season in a decade and a head coach unlikely to leave the program they have the smallest recruiting class in the Power 4 with 8 commitments. Tennessee has 7 commitments for the class of 2026! There also doesn’t seem to be any reporters giving reason for optimism moving forward either. Unless things change quickly, it seems like fans of the Dores may just have to take solace in their cinderella season and not think too much about the future.

If you enjoyed this post, please subscribe so that you can receive emails updating you upon every post and share this with others who you think might enjoy. This is a free newsletter, but if you are feeling so generous you can buy me a coffee.