What's Next for Texas with Arch Manning?
A quick breakdown on the immediate effects of the 2023 top recruit's commitment
My goal in creating The Evaluation Period was to discuss FBS recruiting from a birds eye view, whether that be investigating how a specific program recruits in a specific area or nuances going on within a specific city. It was not to discuss where individual teenagers who happen to be good at football that may not have their driver’s license decide to go to college. However, earlier today Arch Manning announced his commitment to the University of Texas. Considering the media storm surrounding his recruitment, it is worthwhile to share what this means for Texas. We’ll answer this through three questions:
How excited should Texas fans be?
What happens to the rest of Texas’s QB room?
How does this affect Texas’s recruiting as a whole?
1. How Excited should Texas fans be?
Pretty excited! Manning is the top rated recruit in the 2023 class by 247Sports’ composite ratings and their internal ratings. Speaking to people within FBS recruiting departments, there is a belief that this is slightly inflated due to his last name. But all asked did believe he would still be roughly a 4 star recruit if he was Archibald Smith. There’s a reasonable case to be made that a recruit with Manning’s physical skills coming from football’s first family and the football related support gained from that deserves consideration and thus a higher rating.
Regardless of the discourse on how to properly rate a player like Arch Manning, the point still stands. Texas is getting a very good QB recruit while having a great offensive head coach. That’s always exciting! He could still bust for any number of reasons, but Longhorn fans can be optimistic.
2. What happens to the rest of Texas’s QB room?
The first order of business to worry about with Arch Manning in the fold for the Longhorns is what happens to the QB room. The QBs on roster for the 2022 football season are split into four groups listed above. We’ll quickly run through them.
Charles Wright, Ben Ballard, and Cole Lourd - I’m sure these QBs are all fantastic young men, excellent sons to their parents, and terrific members of their community. Unfortunately, considering how much lower rated they were coming out of high school than the other passers it was always unlikely they were going to see the field regardless of Manning’s commitment. But Cole Lourd kinda looks like Haley Joel Osment, and that’s fun.
Quinn Ewers - Although he has not formally won the starting job yet, it is widespread belief that the former #1 recruit will start for the Longhorns in 2022. It’s possible that it is not an outright win and he splits time with Hudson Card early on, but consensus opinions suggest the job will be his by season’s end. If he plays up to, or close to, his sky high expectations, then he will have a firm grip on the job in 2023 and declare for the 2024 NFL draft. If he disappoints, then Texas will likely have another open QB competition for the 2023 season. That would likely result in his transfer if he were to lose that battle. But overall, he is not affected much by Manning’s commitment unless he fails to play well in 2022 and loses the starting role to Manning in 2023.
Hudson Card & Maalik Murphy - Card is in a similar boat to Ewers in not really being affected by Manning’s commitment. If Card does not beat out Ewers to start in 2022 and secure the 2023 starting role after his up and down 2021 campaign, then the incentives suggest he is likely to transfer for the 2023 season. If he wins the job through 2023, then the incentives suggest Ewers transfers.
Murphy, however, is most directly affected by Arch Manning. Barring injury, he is unlikely to see the field in his true freshman campaign, and is only going to see the field in 2023 if he beats a disappointing 2022 starter. His main opportunity to start is in 2024, and now he has to compete with Manning for it. The incentives suggest that either he could transfer in 2023 to another Power 5 situation with a clear route to start sooner, or after 2024 if he loses the battle to Manning.
Arch Manning - Manning has a simple three year plan: don’t get hurt enjoying your senior season of high school, take 2023 to either beat out the disappointing 2022 starter or develop and get acclimated to college life, and in 2024 win the starting job, maybe beating out Maalik Murphy if he’s still around. If that last step is infeasible, then the incentives suggest he transfers to somewhere he can start.
3. How does this affect Texas’s recruiting as a whole?
The main impact of Texas’s recruiting in 2023, and to an extent 2024, is that they have a great QB prospect in tow and don’t have to spend heavy resources on the position. There is a chance that having Manning will help recruiting pitches to other high end players. But, figuring out the impact of having a #1 QB prospect on recruiting a blue chip defensive lineman from DFW for the University of Texas is at best a tertiary effect, and incredibly difficult to parse. The main benefit is being able to spend time now catching up to Texas A&M in their home state.
The Aggies currently have 2 of the top 15 TX recruits (CB Bravion Rogers and CB Jayvon Thomas) and are projected to get four more by 247sports. The Longhorns currently only have one (WR Ryan Niblett) and are projected to get two more. While Texas is overall losing the state, they currently have a lead within Houston and it would behoove them to widen it against the Aggies.
Tl;dr
Texas gained a commitment from 2023’s #1 recruit, Arch Manning. That’s incredibly exciting news! In terms of their QB room this likely means Hudson Card will transfer out, assuming Quinn Ewers starts, and then in 2024 it will come between Maalik Murphy and Arch Manning for starter. In all likelihood, Arch Manning will be the starter, resulting in Murphy’s transfer. For Texas’s recruiting as a whole this is great news as it frees up recruiting resources, particularly at QB for 2023 and 2024. But the more immediate problem facing Texas recruiting is competing with Texas A&M in the state, but they can make up ground in and around Houston.