When Will Every Class of 2025 Blue Chip QBs Get The Chance to Start?
Michigan's Bryce Underwood, USC's Husan Longstreet, Memphis's Antwann Hill, and Maryland's Malik Washington seem poised to start multiple games in 2025
Unlike rookies entering the NFL, quarterback recruits rarely make significant impacts in their true freshman season. The blue chip QB recruits in the Class of 2025 do not seem to be an exception. After judging the situations they are finding themselves in, only 4 high school arms this cycle have a significant chance of taking the reins for their programs. A vast majority will have their best chance to see the field in the 2026 or 2027 season. The biggest open question is how many passers would be willing to wait until 2028 to start when they exist in a system which compensates them to transfer elsewhere instead of waiting 3 seasons. In my estimation, I do not think many would make that choice. Here are my full predictions for when every blue chip QB in the Class of 2025 will start at their committed program:
A more in depth break down for each passer can be found below.
1. 5 Star Bryce Underwood (Michigan, 99.36)
Prediction: 2025 Starter
Michigan will have two other scholarship QBs on roster to start the 2025 season: transfer senior Mikey Keene, and redshirt freshman Jadyn Davis. Keene has thrown for 8,245 yards and 65 touchdowns while playing under new OC Chip Lindsey as a sophomore in 2022. Davis did not throw a pass or carry the ball while during his sole appearance last season.
Keene will likely be the Week 1 starter given all of his experience and familiarity with Lindsey. But Michigan in recent years has had special rushing packages with a backup QB (JJ McCarthy in 2021, Alex Orji in 2023). It would be reasonable to expect this trend to continue with Underwood since he has a $12 million NIL deal. We can also expect him to become the primary backup, so its plausible he could either beat out Keene by the end of the year or come in if Keene were to miss time. In the worst case scenario, where Underwood never becomes a viable starting Power 4 QB, he will still probably start at least a handful of games in 2026.
2. 5 Star Keelon Russell (Alabama, 98.73)
Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer
Russell is extremely unlikely to become Alabama’s starting QB in 2025. The Crimson Tide are posed to have a ferocious battle between rising redshirt junior and longtime backup Ty Simpson and rising redshirt sophomore Austin Mack who followed Kalen DeBoer from Washington. In either case, the loser is likely to transfer at season’s end and thus leave Russell as the program’s heir apparent.
When exactly Russell would rise from heir apparent to actual starter remains unclear. His quickest path would be for the 2025 starter to either break out and declare for the draft or just be really bad at football. That would open up the path for him to easily slot in as the starter in 2026. The most likely outcome is that the winner is not good enough to declare for the NFL after just one season and ends up staying for 2026, thus pushing Russell’s debut back to 2027.
The worst case scenario for Russell is that Mack wins the job in 2025 and plays out the rest of his eligibility, meaning Russell would have to sit until 2028. I am unsure the chances that a prospect as talented as Russell would be willing to wait 3 seasons before seeing the field, and would probably forecast him to transfer in that case.
3. 5 Star Tavien St. Clair (Ohio State, 98.92)
Prediction: 2027 Starter
Similar to Russell, St. Clair will almost certainly not be starting for the Buckeyes in 2025. The Buckeyes will have a competition between rising juniors Julian Sayin, a former Alabama transfer, and Lincoln Kienholz, who is from South Dakota, and we can assume the loser will transfer at the end of the season. Insiders believe Sayin has the inside track for the job, but the winner doesn’t matter very much to St. Clair. He will only see the field in 2025 because of major injuries, or in clean up duty at the end of blowouts.
St. Clair’s path to starting once the winner is decided is pretty straightforward. The winner could establish themselves as an elite NFL draft prospect and declare after one season starting, letting St. Clair start in 2026. Otherwise, they’ll play out their final season and he’ll be the favorite to start in 2027.
4. 5 Star Husan Longstreet (USC, 97.05)
Prediction: 2025 Starter
Lincoln Riley previously told the LA Times that he planned to bring in another passer via the portal after losing former starter Miller Moss and third stringer Jake Jensen. At time of writing, that leaves Longstreet and current starter rising redshirt junior Jayden Maiava as the only scholarship QBs on the roster. Maiava has shown some flashes, but been inconsistent since taking over as the Trojans’ starting QB.
Longstreet is considered a raw prospect by recruiting analysts, but considering that Riley is on the hot seat it would not be a shock to see him with some serious playing time if Maiava slips up or gets hurt. What his future holds depends heavily on how USC’s next season goes. If the Trojans play well enough to keep Riley’s job, then the final 2025 starter will roll into 2026 and Longstreet will start by 2027 at the latest. If the Trojans fall short of expectations again and Riley loses his job, however, then he is just as likely to enter the transfer portal as he is to start in 2026 or beyond with the Trojans.
Considering Maiava’s up and down play as well as Riley’s hot seat, the most likely outcome is that Longstreet takes over as starter by the end of 2025.
5. 5 Star Deuce Knight (Auburn, 96.50)
Prediction: 2027 Starter
Auburn’s QB room is a bit of a mess. Every scholarship QB currently on Auburn’s roster is either transferring or out of eligibility. Hugh Freeze has rectified that problem by bringing in transfers rising juniors Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma and Ashton Daniels from Stanford. They’ll battle it out for the starting job with Arnold as the favorite coming in. While the path is a little whackier, this puts Knight in pretty much the same boat as Ohio State commit Tavien St. Clair.
The most likely outcome is that the winner of the QB battle will start for the rest of their eligibility and put Knight inline to start in 2027. If either becomes a massive NFL draft prospect - or if both are awful - then he has a significant shot at starting in 2026. He is vanishingly unlikely to start as a freshman in 2025.
6. 4 Star Julian Lewis (Colorado, 95.86)
Prediction: 2026 Starter
Outside of Lewis, the Buffaloes will have Liberty transfer Kaidon Slater and rising junior Ryan Staub as the other scholarship QBs on roster. Slater was a two year starter with the Flames and gained 587 yards on the ground after accounting for yardage lost on sacks. Staub has seen limited action, starting against Utah in 2023 but only throwing 4 passes this season.
Slater is thus the presumed starter only has one season of eligibility remaining. Since Staub has some experience he will probably be the primary backup, allowing Lewis to redshirt this season and be ready to start in 2026. This will probably be best for Lewis since he reclassified from the Class of 2026 and is a smaller player being listed at 6’0 and 186 lbs.
If Deion Sanders were to leave for an NFL head coaching job (say Dallas, New York, or Las Vegas) then it would be an open question if a new coaching staff would want Lewis’s size as the QB of the future. He was already passed over once this cycle by USC in favor of Husan Longstreet.
7. 4 Star Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Oregon, 95.08) & 20. 4 Star Akili Smith Jr. (Oregon,
Sagapolutele Prediction: 2027 Starter
Smith Prediction: Transfer
Sagapolutele and Smith’s fates at Oregon are intimately tied together. Oregon in general has an extremely crowded QB room where they project to have 5 scholarship QBs entering the 2025 season. This will likely slim down with the Spring transfer portal in April, but the only passer that Sagapolutele and Smith need concern themselves with is Dante Moore.
Moore is a rising junior and former 5 star recruit that transferred over from UCLA during the 2024 offseason. He is by far the highest rated QB in Eugene, and will be the starter in 2025. Between the two remaining scholarship QBs, rising redshirt sophomore Austin Novosad and rising sophomore Luke Moga, Sagapolutele and Smith are unlikely to see the field in any major capacity next season. The most likely outcome is that they will likely end up battling for the starting role in either 2026 after Moore stinks or declares for the NFL draft, or in 2027 after Moore uses up the rest of his eligibility. The loser of this battle would almost certainly transfer.
I believe Sagapolutele will win the eventual QB battle, leading to Smith transferring.
8. 4 Star Matt Zollers (Missouri, 94.01)
Prediction: 2026 Starter
Zollers will not start as a Freshman for the Tigers. Mizzou is bringing in Penn State backup QB Beau Pribula on a 7-figure NIL deal to start next season, and Zollers will be recovering from a broken ankle early this season. With backup Drew Pyne sticking around on the roster at the time of writing, it is unlikely Zollers will see the field at all in 2025 outside of some garbage time minutes.
Zollers’s future looks remarkably similar to many other of the top passers in this class. Most likely Zollers will be a shoe-in to start in 2027, or he could start in 2026 if Pribula blows up or stinks.
9. 4 Star KaMario Taylor (Mississippi State, 93.92)
Prediction: 2026 Starter or Transfer
The Bulldogs have two other scholarship QBs entering 2025: 6th year senior Blake Shapen and Florida State transfer Luke Kromenhoek. Shapen entered 2024 as the starting signal caller before suffering an injury in the 4th quarter against Florida in September. He will be the starter entering the 2025 season.
This leaves Mississippi State’s future prospects at the quarterback position split between Taylor and Kromenhoek. They will battle out for the honor to start in 2026, assuming the Bulldogs don’t bring in an experienced arm and Lebby stays around. It is a fool’s errand to try and predict who will win the battle between the two at this vantage point. But it is equally likely that Taylor will start for Mississippi State in 2026 or enter the transfer portal.
10. 4 Star Bryce Baker (North Carolina, 93.50)
Prediction: 2026 Starter or Transfer
Baker will enter a crowded QB room in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels will have 4 scholarship signal callers, including Max Johnson and Jacolby Criswell who both started games last season as well as Purdue transfer Ryan Browne. It remains to be seen if any will leave in the spring transfer portal after Bill Belichick’s first spring practices.
Because of all the returning talent, Baker probably won’t see the field in 2025 outside of injury madness. Beyond next season, the depth chart would suggest that Baker is well-posed to take the starting reins in 2026. But he was not recruited by Belichick, and it remains to be seen if a 73 year old coach who spent his entire career in the NFL would rather develop an 18 year old who started two high school seasons or grab a more experienced arm in the portal. Forecasting, it is equally likely that Baker starts in 2026 or ends up transferring.
11. 4 Star Malik Washington (Maryland, 93.41)
Prediction: 2025 Starter
Washington joins in the in-state Terps as one of the most decorated passers in Maryland high school football history. He will have a chance to compete for the Terps’ starting job with 2024 starter Billy Edwards Jr. transferring to Wisconsin. He’ll have to compete with UCLA transfer and rising redshirt junior Justyn Martin. Rising redshirt junior Jayden Sauray and rising sophomore Khristian Martin are also theoretically in the mix but neither have appeared in a game in their career.
Mike Locksley has not ruled out the chance that Washington could see the field early, and with both of last year’s starter and last year’s backup leaving the program it seems more likely than not that he will take over by the end of 2025. If he does not, it would likely be difficult to keep him off the field in 2026 since he is easily the highest touted QB on Maryland’s roster.
12. 4 Star George MacIntyre (Tennessee, 93.18)
Prediction: Transfer
MacIntyre is in an enviable position. He will not have any realistic chance at starting for the Volunteers until Nico Iamaleava leaves the program. That could potentially be as soon as 2026 if he gets accurate enough for the NFL, or if there are impossible to predict injury shenanigans, but more realistically that ends up being a battle with rising sophomore Jake Merklinger in 2027 or 2028.
This wait is already on the longer side compared to other blue chip QBs, but is complicated by the Vols’ 2026 class. The Class of 2026’s #1 QB, Jared Curtis, is from Nashville and the Vols already have a commitment from the #2 QB Faizon Brandon. The class is in its very early stages and rankings can change rapidly, but that puts Tennessee in a great position to add a 5 star QB a year or two before they’d have to start. That leaves MacIntyre in an awkward position with the program unless he just turns out to be a top-flight talent. I would expect him to either transfer in 2026, or maybe start in 2027/28 depending on how Tennessee’s 2026 class ends up and Iamaleava’s pro prospects.
13. 4 Star Ryan Montgomery (Georgia, 92.49)
Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer
Montgomery will not be starting for the Bulldogs in 2025. He will still be recovering from a knee injury which wiped away his senior season and the Bulldogs have three competent veteran QBs already on roster. Rising redshirt junior Gunner Stockton is the leader in the clubhouse, but his play this season has not excluded either of rising redshirt sophomore Jaden Rashada or rising redshirt freshman Ryan Puglisi to compete for the role. It is would not be surprising if at least one transferred after the 2025 season.
It is difficult to project exactly when Montgomery would see the field since it depends so heavily on which QB emerges as the victor and how solid their play is. If Stockton establishes himself as the starter without a doubt, Montgomery could compete for the role in 2026 or 2027. If it ends up being Rashada or Puglisi, then Montgomery likely won’t have a chance until 2027 or 2028 and could very well transfer depending on what UGA’s 2026 class looks like. If none of the on-roster QBs emerge as a starter, then he could compete for the role in 2026 against a potential transfer portal arm. On balance, I think the most likely outcome is that he ends up as Georgia’s starter in 2027 or he transfers out of a crowded QB room.
14. 4 Star Antwann Hill (Memphis, 91.37)
Prediction: 2025 Starter
Hill is the only blue chip QB to sign with a Group of 5 program out of high school this decade. He is undeniably the most highly touted QB on Memphis’s roster. Despite this, he probably will not be the opening day starter for the Tigers. They brought in 6th year senior and former Nevada starter Brendon Lewis in the transfer portal. Given all his experience and Ryan Silverfield’s comments that Hill will have to compete for his role, this likely means Lewis will start in their first game against UT Chattanooga. But its hard to envision a world where Memphis lands a blue chip QB and he does not end up starting by the end of his true freshman season.
15. 4 Star Carter Smith (Wisconsin, 91.34)
Prediction: Transfer
With the Badgers bringing in San Diego State starting QB and rising sophomore Danny O’Neil it is unlikely Smith starts for the Badgers next season outside of injuries. If O’Neil stays healthy, its likely Smith is not even the primary backup as to maintain his redshirt.
The only other scholarship QB on roster for next season is rising sophomore (or redshirt freshman) Mabrey Mettauer. Mettauer was a lower rated recruit coming out of high school than Smith, but he would still likely be Smith’s primary competition when O’Neil is no longer the starter likely in 2027 or 2028. The loser of that battle would almost certainly transfer. If Luke Fickell’s hot seat results in him losing his job next season however, Smith could transfer in the shuffle. The most likely outcome is that Smith will transfer because he does not want to wait 3 years or Fickell gets fired.
16. 4 Star Adam Schobel (TCU, 91.25)
Prediction: 2027 Starter
With freshman QB Hauss Hejney transferring out of the program, Schobel is the undisputed future signal caller for the Horned Frogs. He is unlikely to start in 2025 with returning starter Josh Hoover entering his redshirt junior season. But the only other passer on roster at the time of writing is rising 5th year senior Ken Seals who threw 11 passes in 2024. Schobel is most likely to take over the reins as the Horned Frogs’ starting signal caller in 2027 when Hoover leaves the program.
17. 4 Star Ty Hawkins (SMU, 91.20)
Prediction: 2027 Starter
Hawkins is in a remarkably similar situation to fellow 4 star recruit Adam Schobel. His DFW metroplex program also has an established starter who is entering their redshirt junior season in 2025 (Kevin Jennings) and in all likelihood will not relinquish that title until he leaves the program. Hawkins is also the most highly rated QB recruit in the program, and won’t have to be the primary backup in 2025 so he can maintain his redshirt. He has the inside track to start for the program in 2027 when Jennings leaves the program.
18. 4 Star KJ Lacey (Texas, 91.16)
Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer
I do not believe KJ Lacey will unseat Arch Manning as the Longhorns’ starting signal caller in 2025. Aside from injuries or Manning struggling immensely in an unforeseen manner, Lacey won’t have a chance to become the starter until Manning leaves the program. Reportedly, he wants to stay all 4 years so that would open the door for a new starter entering the 2027 season. At that point he would be facing competition from current freshman Trey Owens as well as Class of 2026 5 star and Texas commit Dia Bell. If he were to lose that competition, he would likely transfer away.
19. 4 Star Brady Hart (Texas A&M, 90.94)
Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer
Like many of his fellow blue chip quarterbacks this cycle, Hart will almost certainly not start as a freshman in 2025. This is probably best for Hart given that he reclassified from the Class of 2026 and needs some physical development. The Aggies also brought in former UAB QB and 7th year senior Jacob Zeno as a backup in the portal, meaning he will likely not have to burn his redshirt even in the event of injuries.
Hart will not get a shot at becoming starter until returning starter and rising redshirt sophomore Marcel Reed either leaves the program or gets benched. In all likelihood, this would not be until 2027 or 2028. If Reed stays for the rest of his eligibility (through the 2027 season) I find it unlikely that Hart or any other blue chip passer would wait so long. If he ended up departing following the 2026 season, then Hart would end up battling it out with current freshman Miles O’Neil and any other passers the Aggies bring in. If he does not win the job, he would likely transfer.
21. 4 Star Tramell Jones (Florida, 90.73)
Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer
Aside from injuries or unforeseen regression, Jones is not going to see serious playing time while DJ Lagway is at Florida. Jones is also not likely to be the primary backup in 2025 with Charlotte starting QB and rising sophomore Deshawn Purdie transferring to Gainesville. Assuming that Lagway fulfills his potential this likely means Jones or any other Gator QB won’t have the chance to start until 2027. At that point Jones will have to compete with Purdie and any other passer the Gators bring in. I would imagine he would transfer if he did not win the starting job.
22. 4 Star Alex Manske (Iowa State, 90.72)
Prediction: 2027 Starter
Manske will not start for the Cyclones as a freshman with incumbent starter and rising redshirt junior Rocco Becht returning. He will also likely not have to be the primary backup next season with rising sophomore (or redshirt freshman) Connor Moberly already on roster. Aside from the possibility of benchings or injuries, Manske likely would not have the chance to start until Becht left the program before the 2027 season. He should have the inside track to start at that point as the most highly touted QB prospect in the program.
23. 4 Star Luke Nickel (Miami, 90.55)
Prediction: 2027 Starter
Nickel enters a wide open quarterback competition at Miami. The Hurricanes were widely expected to bring in a transfer quarterback to compete for the starting job, but at time of writing they have not appear to done so. Miami analysts largely expect 2024 backup and rising redshirt junior to become the starter with rising sophomore Judd Anderson or Nickel acting as backup. Considering Nickel’s blue chip status it doesn’t strike me as impossible for him to become the starter at some point during 2025, but not the most likely outcome. If Williams does get the starting nod, then Nickel should have the inside track for the job when Williams leaves the program in 2027.
24. 4 Star Madden Iamaleava (Arkansas, 90.11)
Prediction: 2026 Starter
By a stroke of luck, Iamaleava seems to be on a similar career arc as his older brother Nico. Arkansas’s 2024 starting QB Taylen Green is returning for his final season and, assuming he doesn’t get hurt, should be the unquestioned starter in 2025. That leaves an open competition for 2026, and Iamaleava should have the inside track to start for the Razorbacks as the highest rated signal caller on the roster. He should be able to retain his redshirt in 2025 with rising sophomore KJ Jackson acting as backup.
25. 4 Star TJ Lateef (Nebraska, 90.00)
Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer
Aside from the ever-present possibility of injury shenanigans, Lateef will not be the Cornhuskers’ starting quarterback in 2025 with Dylan Raiola at the helm. With rising redshirt senior Heinrich Haarberg and Purdue transfer rising sophomore Marcos Davila on roster, Lateef will also not have to act as the primary backup next season. As the highest rated non-Raiola quarterback on Nebraska’s roster, he should have the inside track to become the starter whenever Raiola leaves the program. At time of writing, the most likely outcome is for Lateef to chalk in as the starter entering the 2027 season after Raiola declares for the NFL draft. Although if Raiola ends up staying for 4 seasons, there is a reasonable chance that Lateef would rather transfer than wait until 2028 to start.
26. 4 Star Lloyd Jones (Texas Tech, 89.77)
Prediction: 2026 Starter or Transfer
The Red Raiders return their starting QB Behren Morton for his final year of eligibility in 2025, so Jones is vanishingly unlikely to start next season. He will also not be the primary backup with rising sophomore Will Hammond and Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis already on roster. Once Morton exits the program, Jones will be thrust into an open competition between himself, Hammond, and Griffis. Presumably, if he was not the starter by the end of the 2026 season he would transfer.
27. 4 Star Blake Hebert (Notre Dame, 89.42)
Prediction: 2027 Starter or Transfer
The Fighting Irish have three competent starting options on roster for the 2025 season, so it is extremely unlikely Hebert will see the field in any significant capacity as a true freshman. Hebert will most likely not have a chance to start until the winner of next year’s QB battle leaves the program. Insiders believe the most likely winner will be either rising redshirt freshman CJ Carr or current backup and rising redshirt junior Steve Angeli.
Hebert’s quickest path to starting is either if Angeli wins or if Carr wins and proves himself to be a top NFL draft prospect. In either of those cases, Hebert will have a chance to compete for the starting gig entering the 2027 season. If the Notre Dame situation develops such that he is unable to compete for a job until 2028, I would expect him to transfer.
28. 4 Star Robert McDaniel (UCLA, 89.38)
Prediction: 2026 Starter or Transfer
McDaniel enters a crowded QB room in UCLA with five other scholarship passers on the roster. The presumptive starter is Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar who is the only passer on roster who has started games during his college career. Aguilar only has one year of eligibility remaining, so it will allow McDaniel to step into a competition to claim a wide-open QB battle entering the 2026 season. It would be reasonable to expect him to transfer if he did not win the job at that point.
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